Celta de Vigo II 47%Draw 25%Lugo 27%Expected goals 1.34 – 1.21
75%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.22
8/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.90 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultCelta de Vigo II to win47% · @1.80
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 11.79
Celta de Vigo II vs Lugo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Sunday 17 May: Celta de Vigo II v Lugo in the Primera División RFEF Group 1, played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
Current form
Celta de Vigo II, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Osasuna II, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Lugo, last 5: LLWDW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Zamora, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Celta de Vigo II 1.3 xG, Lugo 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Celta de Vigo II 47%, draw 25%, Lugo 27%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Celta de Vigo II 1–1 Lugo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Celta de Vigo II47%fair 2.12 · @1.80
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.30
Lugo27%fair 3.64 · @4.10
2.55Expected goals
1.34Celta de Vigo II xG
1.21Lugo xG
58%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Celta de Vigo II 1.3 – 1.2 Lugo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Celta de Vigo II
Lugo
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 1 average
+7%
+24%
Goals conceded vs average
+11%
-21%
Our expected goals here
1.17
1.48
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Celta de Vigo II to win
47%
2.12
1.80
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.34
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.72
1.90 ▲
Draw no bet
Celta de Vigo II (draw no bet)
63%
1.58
–
Asian handicap
Lugo +0.5 (Asian handicap)
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.42
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
54%
1.84
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Celta de Vigo II to score first
48%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Celta de Vigo II / FT Celta de Vigo II
23%
4.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
11.79
–
Recent results
Celta de Vigo II – last 6
LWLWDD
1 May
vs Osasuna II
0–1
L
17 Apr
vs Cacereño
3–0
W
3 Apr
@ Real Madrid II
1–5
L
29 Mar
vs Athletic Club II
2–1
W
20 Mar
@ Arenteiro
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs Tenerife
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Lugo – last 6
LLWDWW
10 May
vs Zamora
1–3
L
5 Apr
vs Osasuna II
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Cacereño
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Arenas Getxo
1–1
D
27 Feb
vs Athletic Club II
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Guadalajara
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Celta de Vigo II and Lugo.
What is the prediction for Celta de Vigo II vs Lugo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Celta de Vigo II vs Lugo?
On our numbers Celta de Vigo II have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lugo 27%.
How many goals will there be in Celta de Vigo II vs Lugo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Celta de Vigo II vs Lugo?
Our predicted score is Celta de Vigo II 1–1 Lugo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Celta de Vigo II vs Lugo?
Celta de Vigo II vs Lugo (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Arenteiro0
CF Talavera0
Ourense CF0
Osasuna II0
Real Madrid II3
Tenerife3