Mérida AD 45%Draw 26%Unionistas de Salamanca 29%Expected goals 1.55 – 1.07
75%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.20
8/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 54% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultMérida AD to win45% · @2.33
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.68
Mérida AD vs Unionistas de Salamanca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Sunday 17 May: Mérida AD v Unionistas de Salamanca in the Primera División RFEF Group 1, played at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto. In the table, Mérida AD are 8th, upper half, on 16 points after 11 matches; Unionistas de Salamanca are 15th (lower half) with 13. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Mérida AD, last 5: LLWDL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Barakaldo, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Unionistas de Salamanca, last 4: WLDW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Zamora, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Unionistas de Salamanca, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Mérida AD.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mérida AD 1.6 xG, Unionistas de Salamanca 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mérida AD 45%, draw 26%, Unionistas de Salamanca 29%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mérida AD 1–1 Unionistas de Salamanca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mérida AD45%fair 2.24 · @2.33
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @2.95
Unionistas de Salamanca29%fair 3.40 · @3.00
2.62Expected goals
1.55Mérida AD xG
1.07Unionistas de Salamanca xG
54%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Mérida AD 1.6 – 1.1 Unionistas de Salamanca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Mérida AD
Unionistas de Salamanca
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 1 average
+18%
-3%
Goals conceded vs average
+4%
+16%
Our expected goals here
1.90
1.08
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mérida AD to win
45%
2.24
2.33
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.84
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Mérida AD (draw no bet)
60%
1.66
–
Asian handicap
Unionistas de Salamanca +1 (Asian handicap)
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
58%
1.73
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
87%
1.14
–
First team to score
Mérida AD to score first
55%
1.82
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mérida AD / FT Mérida AD
29%
3.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.68
–
Recent results
Mérida AD – last 6
LLWDLW
9 May
@ Barakaldo
0–2
L
24 Apr
@ Arenas Getxo
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Arenteiro
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Athletic Club II
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs Guadalajara
1–4
L
22 Feb
vs Cacereño
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Unionistas de Salamanca – last 4
WLDW
5 Apr
@ Zamora
3–2
W
15 Mar
vs Barakaldo
0–3
L
8 Mar
@ Pontevedra
0–0
D
15 Feb
@ Osasuna II
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mérida AD and Unionistas de Salamanca.
What is the prediction for Mérida AD vs Unionistas de Salamanca?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Mérida AD vs Unionistas de Salamanca?
On our numbers Mérida AD have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Unionistas de Salamanca 29%.
How many goals will there be in Mérida AD vs Unionistas de Salamanca?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mérida AD vs Unionistas de Salamanca?
Our predicted score is Mérida AD 1–1 Unionistas de Salamanca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Mérida AD vs Unionistas de Salamanca?
Mérida AD vs Unionistas de Salamanca (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Arenteiro0
Celta de Vigo II0
CF Talavera0
Ourense CF0
Osasuna II0
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Tenerife3