Real Avilés 42%Draw 26%Barakaldo 33%Expected goals 1.53 – 1.12
73%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.25
8/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Real Avilés to win @ 2.80 – our chance 42% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultReal Avilés to win42% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.81
Real Avilés vs Barakaldo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Real Avilés welcome Barakaldo to Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta for a Primera División RFEF Group 1 fixture on Sunday 17 May (16:00 WAT). In the table, Real Avilés are 4th, among the top four, on 17 points after 11 matches; Barakaldo are 12th (lower half) with 14. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Real Avilés, last 4: WLDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Ourense CF, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Barakaldo, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Mérida AD, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Barakaldo, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Real Avilés.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Real Avilés 1.5 xG, Barakaldo 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Real Avilés 42%, draw 26%, Barakaldo 33%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Real Avilés to win @2.80 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Real Avilés 1–1 Barakaldo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Real Avilés42%fair 2.41 · @2.80
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.10
Barakaldo33%fair 3.06 · @2.38
2.64Expected goals
1.53Real Avilés xG
1.12Barakaldo xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Real Avilés 1.5 – 1.1 Barakaldo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Real Avilés
Barakaldo
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 1 average
+55%
-18%
Goals conceded vs average
+9%
-20%
Our expected goals here
1.71
0.97
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Avilés to win
42%
2.41
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.74
1.73
Draw no bet
Real Avilés (draw no bet)
56%
1.79
–
Asian handicap
Barakaldo +1 (Asian handicap)
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
72%
1.40
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
52%
1.92
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
73%
1.36
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Real Avilés to score first
54%
1.87
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Avilés / FT Real Avilés
28%
3.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.81
–
Recent results
Real Avilés – last 4
WLDL
5 Apr
vs Ourense CF
2–1
W
8 Mar
vs Zamora
0–2
L
27 Feb
@ Tenerife
2–2
D
15 Feb
@ Celta de Vigo II
2–4
L
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Barakaldo – last 6
WLLWWW
9 May
vs Mérida AD
2–0
W
1 May
@ Tenerife
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Ponferradina
0–1
L
27 Mar
vs Real Madrid II
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
3–0
W
8 Mar
vs Ourense CF
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Avilés and Barakaldo.
What is the prediction for Real Avilés vs Barakaldo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Real Avilés vs Barakaldo?
On our numbers Real Avilés have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Barakaldo 33%.
How many goals will there be in Real Avilés vs Barakaldo?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Avilés vs Barakaldo?
Our predicted score is Real Avilés 1–1 Barakaldo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Real Avilés vs Barakaldo?
Real Avilés vs Barakaldo (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Arenteiro0
Celta de Vigo II0
CF Talavera0
Ourense CF0
Osasuna II0
Real Madrid II3
Tenerife3