Value bet: JEF United Chiba to win @ 2.65 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultJEF United Chiba to win ✗42% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.08
JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
05:00 WAT, Saturday 11 April: JEF United Chiba v Mito Hollyhock in the J1 League, played at Fukuda Denshi Arena. In the table, JEF United Chiba are 10th, in the drop zone, on 12 points after 18 matches; Mito Hollyhock are 9th (in the drop zone) with 18.
Current form
JEF United Chiba, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Tokyo Verdy, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Mito Hollyhock, last 4: LWLD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Kashiwa Reysol, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give JEF United Chiba 1.5 xG, Mito Hollyhock 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – JEF United Chiba 42%, draw 27%, Mito Hollyhock 32%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: JEF United Chiba to win @2.65 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: JEF United Chiba 1–1 Mito Hollyhock. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
JEF United Chiba42%fair 2.41 · @2.65
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @3.10
Mito Hollyhock32%fair 3.16 · @2.65
2.61Expected goals
1.46JEF United Chiba xG
1.15Mito Hollyhock xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: JEF United Chiba 1.5 – 1.1 Mito Hollyhock expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
JEF United Chiba to win✗
42%
2.41
2.65 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.85 ▲
Draw no bet
JEF United Chiba (draw no bet)
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Mito Hollyhock +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.06
First team to score
JEF United Chiba to score first✗
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT JEF United Chiba / FT JEF United Chiba✗
26%
3.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.08
–
Recent results
JEF United Chiba – last 6
WLLLWL
4 Apr
vs Tokyo Verdy
3–2
W
22 Mar
@ Kashima
1–2
L
18 Mar
vs FC Tokyo
1–2
L
14 Mar
@ Yokohama F. Marinos
0–2
L
7 Mar
vs Kashiwa Reysol
2–1
W
27 Feb
@ Machida Zelvia
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Mito Hollyhock – last 4
LWLD
22 Mar
@ Kashiwa Reysol
0–3
L
18 Mar
vs Yokohama F. Marinos
1–0
W
7 Mar
@ Urawa
0–2
L
14 Feb
@ Machida Zelvia
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between JEF United Chiba and Mito Hollyhock.
What is the prediction for JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock?
On our numbers JEF United Chiba have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Mito Hollyhock 32%.
How many goals will there be in JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock?
Our predicted score is JEF United Chiba 1–1 Mito Hollyhock, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock?
JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock (J1 League) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 05:00 (West Africa Time) at Fukuda Denshi Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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