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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Machida Zelvia v Kashiwa Reysol: numbers & prediction

J1 League · Japan · Machida Stadium
1–0
FT
Machida Zelvia 41%Draw 27%Kashiwa Reysol 32% Expected goals 1.49 – 1.10
75%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.22Odds
1

Value bet: Machida Zelvia to win @ 2.85 – our chance 41% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultMachida Zelvia to win ✓41% · @2.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.92

Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Machida Zelvia welcome Kashiwa Reysol to Machida Stadium for a J1 League fixture on Saturday 11 April (06:00 WAT). In the table, Machida Zelvia are 3rd, among the top four, on 37 points after 18 matches; Kashiwa Reysol are 8th (in the drop zone) with 20. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Machida Zelvia, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to FC Tokyo, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Kashiwa Reysol, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Yokohama F. Marinos, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Head to head

When they last met (14 Mar 2026) it ended Kashiwa Reysol 0–1 Machida Zelvia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Machida Zelvia 1.5 xG, Kashiwa Reysol 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 53%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Machida Zelvia 41%, draw 27%, Kashiwa Reysol 32%.
  • GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.83.
  • Price worth noting: Machida Zelvia to win @2.85 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 41%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Machida Zelvia 1–1 Kashiwa Reysol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Machida Zelvia41%fair 2.46 · @2.85
Draw27%fair 3.64 · @3.10
Kashiwa Reysol32%fair 3.14 · @2.55
2.59Expected goals
1.49Machida Zelvia xG
1.10Kashiwa Reysol xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–08%

From our goals model: Machida Zelvia 1.5 – 1.1 Kashiwa Reysol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMachida Zelvia to win ✓41%2.462.85 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73%1.381.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗53%1.881.83
Draw no betMachida Zelvia (draw no bet) ✓56%1.78–
Asian handicapKashiwa Reysol +1 (Asian handicap)70%1.43–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗70%1.431.40
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓54%1.841.67
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75%1.331.22
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓88%1.141.07
First team to scoreMachida Zelvia to score first ✓53%1.88–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓43%2.33–
Half-time / full-timeHT Machida Zelvia / FT Machida Zelvia ✗27%3.65–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.92–

Recent results

Machida Zelvia – last 6

LWLWWD
1 Aprvs FC Tokyo0–3L
22 Mar@ Urawa2–1W
18 Marvs Kashima0–3L
14 Mar@ Kashiwa Reysol1–0W
10 Marvs Gangwon FC1–0W
3 Mar@ Gangwon FC0–0D
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Kashiwa Reysol – last 6

WWLLWL
5 Aprvs Yokohama F. Marinos3–0W
22 Marvs Mito Hollyhock3–0W
14 Marvs Machida Zelvia0–1L
7 Mar@ JEF United Chiba1–2L
28 Feb@ FC Tokyo2–0W
21 Feb@ Kashima0–2L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

14 Mar 2026Kashiwa Reysol v Machida Zelvia0–1
Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol head-to-head page →

J1 League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Kashima181503+2045
2FC Tokyo181305+1437
3Machida Zelvia181305+637
4Kawasaki Frontale181008-228
5Tokyo Verdy181008-428
6Urawa187011+325
7Yokohama F. Marinos186012-320
8Kashiwa Reysol187011-220
9Mito Hollyhock186012-1618
10JEF United Chiba183015-1612

More J1 League predictions

League hub

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol?

On our numbers Machida Zelvia have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Kashiwa Reysol 32%.

How many goals will there be in Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol?

Our predicted score is Machida Zelvia 1–1 Kashiwa Reysol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol?

Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol (J1 League) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Machida Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.