Lithuania v Azerbaijan Prediction & Expected Goals (27 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultLithuania to win ✗40% · @2.38

Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.36

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.00

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 14.06

Lithuania vs Azerbaijan: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

14:00 WAT, Sunday 27 September: Lithuania v Azerbaijan in the UEFA Nations League, played at Dariaus ir Girėno stadionas. In the table, Lithuania are 2nd on 4 points after 3 matches; Azerbaijan are 1st with 5. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Lithuania, last 3: WLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Liechtenstein, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Azerbaijan, last 4: WWLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Tajikistan, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Lithuania 1.1 xG, Azerbaijan 0.9 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Lithuania 40%, draw 25%, Azerbaijan 35%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Azerbaijan to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 35%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (52%, odds 2.00 – longer than our fair 1.93, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lithuania 1–1 Azerbaijan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Lithuania40%fair 2.48 · @2.38

Draw25%fair 3.99 · @2.80

Azerbaijan35%fair 2.89 · @3.10

2.00Expected goals

1.05Lithuania xG

0.95Azerbaijan xG

52%Both score

32%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%

0–014%

1–113%

0–113%

2–08%

2–17%

From our goals model: Lithuania 1.1 – 0.9 Azerbaijan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Lithuania to win ✗	40%	2.48	2.38
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	75%	1.33	1.36
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	52%	1.93	2.00
Draw no bet	Lithuania (draw no bet)	54%	1.86	–
Asian handicap	Azerbaijan +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	63%	1.60	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	59%	1.68	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	68%	1.48	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	86%	1.17	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	95%	1.06	–
First team to score	Lithuania to score first	46%	2.19	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	50%	2.00	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Draw / FT Draw ✓	22%	4.59	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	7%	14.06	–

Lithuania – last 3

WLW

24 Sep	@ Liechtenstein	2–0	W
29 Mar	vs Georgia	0–2	L
26 Mar	@ Moldova	2–0	W

1.3Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

0%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

Azerbaijan – last 4

WWLW

23 Sep	vs Tajikistan	1–0	W
9 Jun	vs San Marino	2–1	W
5 Jun	vs Malta	0–2	L
27 Mar	vs St. Lucia	6–1	W

2.3Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Azerbaijan	3	1	2	0	+1	5
2	Lithuania	3	1	1	1	+1	4
3	Liechtenstein	2	0	1	1	-2	1

Team

Pts

Azerbaijan

Lithuania

Liechtenstein

-2

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.

Who will win Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?

On our numbers Lithuania have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Azerbaijan 35%.

How many goals will there be in Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?

We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?

Our predicted score is Lithuania 1–1 Azerbaijan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.

When is Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?

Lithuania vs Azerbaijan (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Dariaus ir Girėno stadionas.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Lithuania v Azerbaijan: numbers & prediction