Georgia v Ukraine Prediction & Expected Goals (28 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultUkraine to win ✗45% · @2.62

Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.33

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓63% · @1.91

GoalsUnder 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36

Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗22% · fair 4.52

Georgia vs Ukraine: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Georgia welcome Ukraine to Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena for a UEFA Nations League fixture on Monday 28 September (17:00 WAT). In the table, Georgia are 4th on 2 points after 4 matches; Ukraine are 3rd with 4. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Georgia, last 5: LWDWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Northern Ireland, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Ukraine, last 4: WWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Hungary, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Ukraine, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.6 for Georgia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Georgia 0.4 xG, Ukraine 0.6 xG – a total near 1.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 92% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Georgia 31%, draw 24%, Ukraine 45%.
GG/NG: NG (63%) at 1.91.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (63%, odds 1.91 – longer than our fair 1.60, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Georgia 0–0 Ukraine. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Georgia31%fair 3.21 · @2.60

Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.00

Ukraine45%fair 2.23 · @2.62

1.00Expected goals

0.40Georgia xG

0.60Ukraine xG

37%Both score

8%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–037%

0–122%

1–015%

1–19%

0–27%

2–03%

From our goals model: Georgia 0.4 – 0.6 Ukraine expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Ukraine to win ✗	45%	2.23	2.62 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	76%	1.32	1.33
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	63%	1.60	1.91 ▲
Draw no bet	Ukraine (draw no bet)	59%	1.70	–
Asian handicap	Georgia +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	66%	1.51	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Under 1.5 goals ✓	74%	1.36	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	92%	1.09	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	98%	1.02	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	100%	1.00	–
First team to score	Ukraine to score first ✗	38%	2.63	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	67%	1.48	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Draw / FT Draw ✓	41%	2.41	–
Correct score	Correct score 0–1 ✗	22%	4.52	–

Georgia – last 5

LWDWD

25 Sep	vs Northern Ireland	0–1	L
5 Jun	vs Bahrain	2–0	W
2 Jun	vs Romania	1–1	D
29 Mar	@ Lithuania	2–0	W
26 Mar	vs Israel	2–2	D

1.4Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

40%Both scored

20%Over 2.5

Ukraine – last 4

WWWL

25 Sep	@ Hungary	1–0	W
31 May	@ Poland	2–0	W
31 Mar	vs Albania	1–0	W
26 Mar	vs Sweden	1–3	L

1.3Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

25%Both scored

25%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Northern Ireland	4	2	2	0	+4	8
2	Hungary	4	2	1	1	+1	7
3	Ukraine	4	1	1	2	-3	4
4	Georgia	4	0	2	2	-2	2

Team

Pts

-3

-2

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Georgia vs Ukraine?

Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.

Who will win Georgia vs Ukraine?

On our numbers Georgia have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ukraine 45%.

How many goals will there be in Georgia vs Ukraine?

We expect about 1.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 8% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Georgia vs Ukraine?

Our predicted score is Georgia 0–0 Ukraine, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.0 goals in total.

When is Georgia vs Ukraine?

Georgia vs Ukraine (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 28 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Georgia v Ukraine: numbers & prediction