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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Sweden v Poland: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Strawberry Arena

Sweden

WLDLW
3–1
FT

Poland

DDLLW
Sweden 49%Draw 21%Poland 30% Expected goals 0.91 – 0.59
52%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.94 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓

3/10Rating
1.60Odds

Picks by market

ResultSweden to win ✓49% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗5% · fair 18.30

Sweden vs Poland: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Monday 28 September the UEFA Nations League brings Sweden against Poland at Strawberry Arena. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Sweden are 1st on 10 points after 4 matches; Poland are 3rd with 4.

Current form

Sweden, last 5: WLDLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Romania, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.

Poland, last 5: DDLLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Bosnia & Herzegovina, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.6 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (31 Mar 2026) it ended Sweden 3–2 Poland.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Sweden 0.9 xG, Poland 0.6 xG – a total near 1.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 81%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Sweden 49%, draw 21%, Poland 30%.
  • GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.60.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (52%, odds 1.60). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sweden 1–1 Poland. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Sweden49%fair 2.04 · @2.00
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.50
Poland30%fair 3.35 · @3.20
1.50Expected goals
0.91Sweden xG
0.59Poland xG
52%Both score
19%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–022%
1–020%
0–113%
1–112%
2–09%
2–15%

From our goals model: Sweden 0.9 – 0.6 Poland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSweden to win ✓49%2.042.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79%1.271.29
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓52%1.941.60
Draw no betSweden (draw no bet) ✓62%1.61–
Asian handicapPoland +1 (Asian handicap) ✗79%1.26–
Over/under 1.5 goalsUnder 1.5 goals ✗56%1.79–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗81%1.24–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗93%1.07–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓98%1.02–
First team to scoreSweden to score first47%2.11–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓57%1.75–
Half-time / full-timeHT Draw / FT Draw ✗29%3.45–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗5%18.30–

Recent results

Sweden – last 6

WLDLWD
25 Sepvs Romania2–1W
30 Jun@ France0–3L
26 Jun@ Japan1–1D
20 Jun@ Netherlands1–5L
15 Junvs Tunisia5–1W
4 Junvs Greece2–2D
1.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Poland – last 5

DDLLW
25 Sepvs Bosnia & Herzegovina0–0D
3 Junvs Nigeria2–2D
31 Mayvs Ukraine0–2L
31 Mar@ Sweden2–3L
26 Marvs Albania2–1W
1.2Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5

Head to head

31 Mar 2026Sweden v Poland3–2
Sweden vs Poland head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Sweden4310+410
2Bosnia & Herzegovina4220+38
3Poland4112+34
4Romania4004-100

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
FT Georgia0 Ukraine0 131%2.60X24%3.00245%2.62 0.4–0.6xG NGNot both teams to score 63%@1.91 ✓
FT Armenia2 Montenegro3 137%2.75X23%3.00239%2.45 1.2–1.3xG GGBoth teams to score 53%@1.85 ✓
FT Latvia0 Cyprus0 139%2.50X24%3.00237%2.70 1.3–1.2xG GGBoth teams to score 51%@1.85 ✗
FT Belgium0 France1 126%3.40X14%3.75261%1.85 0.4–1.1xG 2France to win 61%@1.85 ✓
FT Türkiye1 Italy4 134%2.50X22%3.30244%2.50 0.7–0.8xG GGBoth teams to score 51%@1.62 ✓
FT Northern Ireland0 Hungary0 123%2.62X54%2.90223%2.62 0.5–0.5xG 1XNorthern Ireland or draw 77%@1.44 ✓
FT Romania2 Bosnia & Herzegovina4 139%2.10X23%3.20238%3.20 0.8–0.7xG NGNot both teams to score 51%@1.91 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sweden vs Poland?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.

Who will win Sweden vs Poland?

On our numbers Sweden have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Poland 30%.

How many goals will there be in Sweden vs Poland?

We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Sweden vs Poland?

Our predicted score is Sweden 1–1 Poland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.

When is Sweden vs Poland?

Sweden vs Poland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 28 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Strawberry Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.