Türkiye v Italy Prediction & Expected Goals (28 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultItaly to win ✓44% · @2.50

Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.62

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗5% · fair 19.42

Türkiye vs Italy: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Monday 28 September the UEFA Nations League brings Türkiye against Italy at Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Türkiye are 4th on 0 points after 4 matches; Italy are 2nd with 7.

Current form

Türkiye, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to France, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Italy, last 4: LWWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Belgium, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Italy, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.5 for Türkiye.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Türkiye 0.7 xG, Italy 0.8 xG – a total near 1.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 81%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Türkiye 34%, draw 22%, Italy 44%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Italy to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 44%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (51%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Türkiye 1–1 Italy. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Türkiye34%fair 2.90 · @2.50

Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.30

Italy44%fair 2.28 · @2.50

1.50Expected goals

0.67Türkiye xG

0.83Italy xG

51%Both score

19%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–022%

0–119%

1–015%

1–112%

0–28%

1–25%

From our goals model: Türkiye 0.7 – 0.8 Italy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Italy to win ✓	44%	2.28	2.50 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	78%	1.28	1.30
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	51%	1.96	1.62
Draw no bet	Italy (draw no bet) ✓	56%	1.79	–
Asian handicap	Türkiye +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	64%	1.57	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Under 1.5 goals ✗	56%	1.79	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	81%	1.24	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	93%	1.07	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	98%	1.02	–
First team to score	Italy to score first ✓	43%	2.33	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	57%	1.74	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Draw / FT Draw ✗	29%	3.41	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	5%	19.42	–

Türkiye – last 6

LWLLWW

25 Sep	vs France	0–1	L
26 Jun	vs USA	3–2	W
20 Jun	vs Paraguay	0–1	L
14 Jun	@ Australia	0–2	L
6 Jun	@ Venezuela	2–1	W
1 Jun	vs FYR Macedonia	4–0	W

1.5Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Italy – last 4

LWWW

25 Sep	vs Belgium	0–2	L
7 Jun	@ Greece	1–0	W
3 Jun	@ Luxembourg	1–0	W
26 Mar	vs Northern Ireland	2–0	W

1.0Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

0%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	France	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Italy	4	2	1	1	+3	7
3	Belgium	4	2	0	2	+1	6
4	Türkiye	4	0	0	4	-9	0

Team

Pts

-9

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Türkiye vs Italy?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.

Who will win Türkiye vs Italy?

On our numbers Türkiye have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Italy 44%.

How many goals will there be in Türkiye vs Italy?

We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Türkiye vs Italy?

Our predicted score is Türkiye 1–1 Italy, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.

When is Türkiye vs Italy?

Türkiye vs Italy (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 28 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Türkiye v Italy: numbers & prediction