Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.85 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.85Odds
Picks by market
ResultFrance to win ✓61% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓86% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗6% · fair 18.08
Belgium vs France: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:45 WAT, Monday 28 September: Belgium v France in the UEFA Nations League, played at Roi Baudouin. In the table, Belgium are 3rd on 6 points after 4 matches; France are 1st with 10.
Current form
Belgium, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Italy, away. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.
France, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Türkiye, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Belgium 0.4 xG, France 1.1 xG – a total near 1.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 81%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Belgium 26%, draw 14%, France 61%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was France to win (61%, odds 1.85 – longer than our fair 1.65, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Belgium 0–1 France. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Belgium26%fair 3.88 · @3.40
Draw14%fair 7.33 · @3.75
France61%fair 1.65 · @1.85
1.50Expected goals
0.45Belgium xG
1.05France xG
52%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–123%
0–022%
0–212%
1–111%
1–010%
1–26%
From our goals model: Belgium 0.4 – 1.1 France expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
France to win✓
61%
1.65
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
86%
1.16
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
1.50
Draw no bet
France (draw no bet)✓
70%
1.43
–
Asian handicap
Belgium +1 (Asian handicap)
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
First team to score
France to score first✓
55%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
57%
1.77
–
Half-time / full-time
HT France / FT France✗
28%
3.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
6%
18.08
–
Recent results
Belgium – last 6
WLWDWD
25 Sep
@ Italy
2–0
W
10 Jul
@ Spain
1–2
L
7 Jul
@ USA
4–1
W
1 Jul
vs Senegal
2–2
D
27 Jun
@ New Zealand
5–1
W
21 Jun
vs Iran
0–0
D
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
France – last 6
WLLWWW
25 Sep
@ Türkiye
1–0
W
18 Jul
vs England
4–6
L
14 Jul
vs Spain
0–2
L
9 Jul
vs Morocco
2–0
W
4 Jul
@ Paraguay
1–0
W
30 Jun
vs Sweden
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Belgium and France.
Our pick is France to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Belgium vs France?
On our numbers Belgium have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 14% and France 61%.
How many goals will there be in Belgium vs France?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Belgium vs France?
Our predicted score is Belgium 0–1 France, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Belgium vs France?
Belgium vs France (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 28 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Roi Baudouin.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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