Germany vs Serbia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Serbia travel to face Germany on Thursday 1 October in the UEFA Nations League, with Allianz Arena the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Germany are 3rd on 5 points after 4 matches; Serbia are 4th with 0.
Current form
Germany, last 5: LDDLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Greece, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Serbia, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Netherlands, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Germany, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.5 for Serbia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Germany 1.8 xG, Serbia 0.5 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Germany 70%, draw 20%, Serbia 10%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Germany to win (70%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Germany 1–0 Serbia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Germany70%fair 1.43 · @1.20
Draw20%fair 5.12 · @6.00
Serbia10%fair 9.66 · @11.00
2.25Expected goals
1.77Germany xG
0.48Serbia xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–019%
2–017%
0–011%
3–010%
1–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Germany 1.8 – 0.5 Serbia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Germany to win✓
70%
1.43
1.20
Double chance
Germany or draw✓
90%
1.12
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.75
Draw no bet
Germany (draw no bet)✓
87%
1.15
–
Asian handicap
Germany -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Germany to score first✓
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Germany ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Germany / FT Germany✓
44%
2.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.64
–
Recent results
Germany – last 6
LDDLWW
27 Sep
vs Greece
0–1
L
24 Sep
@ Netherlands
1–1
D
29 Jun
vs Paraguay
1–1
D
25 Jun
@ Ecuador
1–2
L
20 Jun
vs Ivory Coast
2–1
W
14 Jun
vs Curaçao
7–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Serbia – last 6
LLLLWL
27 Sep
vs Netherlands
1–2
L
24 Sep
vs Greece
1–2
L
5 Jun
@ Mexico
1–5
L
31 May
@ Cape Verde Islands
0–3
L
31 Mar
vs Saudi Arabia
2–1
W
27 Mar
@ Spain
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Germany and Serbia.
Our pick is Germany to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Germany vs Serbia?
On our numbers Germany have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Serbia 10%.
How many goals will there be in Germany vs Serbia?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Germany vs Serbia?
Our predicted score is Germany 1–0 Serbia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Germany vs Serbia?
Germany vs Serbia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Azerbaijan0
Liechtenstein0
Denmark2
Portugal4
Wales2
Norway1
Rep. Of Ireland2
Austria2
Israel0
Kosovo0
Malta1
Gibraltar1