Wales v Norway Prediction & Expected Goals (1 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultNorway to win ✗65% · @1.40

Double chanceNorway or draw ✗87% · @1.12

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.67

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.36

Wales vs Norway: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Norway travel to face Wales on Thursday 1 October in the UEFA Nations League, with Cardiff City Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Wales are 3rd on 3 points after 4 matches; Norway are 4th with 3. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Wales, last 5: LLLDD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Denmark, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game.

Norway, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Portugal, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Norway, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.4 for Wales.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Wales 0.8 xG, Norway 2.0 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 58%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Wales 13%, draw 22%, Norway 65%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.67.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Norway to win (65%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Wales 0–1 Norway. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Wales13%fair 7.80 · @6.00

Draw22%fair 4.46 · @4.40

Norway65%fair 1.54 · @1.40

2.75Expected goals

0.77Wales xG

1.98Norway xG

58%Both score

52%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–113%

0–213%

1–110%

1–210%

0–38%

0–06%

From our goals model: Wales 0.8 – 2.0 Norway expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Norway to win ✗	65%	1.54	1.40
Double chance	Norway or draw ✗	87%	1.15	1.12
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	58%	1.73	1.67
Draw no bet	Norway (draw no bet) ✗	83%	1.20	–
Asian handicap	Norway -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	66%	1.52	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	76%	1.32	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	52%	1.93	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	70%	1.42	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	86%	1.17	–
First team to score	Norway to score first	67%	1.49	–
Half-time result	Norway ahead at half-time ✗	47%	2.13	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Norway / FT Norway ✗	42%	2.37	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	10%	10.36	–

Wales – last 5

LLLDD

27 Sep	@ Denmark	0–2	L
24 Sep	@ Portugal	0–1	L
6 Jun	@ Romania	1–2	L
2 Jun	vs Ghana	1–1	D
31 Mar	vs Northern Ireland	1–1	D

0.6Scored / game

1.4Conceded / game

60%Both scored

20%Over 2.5

Norway – last 6

LWDWWL

27 Sep	vs Portugal	1–2	L
24 Sep	vs Denmark	3–2	W
11 Jul	vs England	1–1	D
5 Jul	@ Brazil	2–1	W
30 Jun	@ Ivory Coast	2–1	W
26 Jun	vs France	1–4	L

1.7Scored / game

1.8Conceded / game

100%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugal	4	4	0	+5	12
2	Denmark	4	2	2	0	6
3	Wales	4	1	3	-3	3
4	Norway	4	1	3	-2	3

Team

Pts

-3

-2

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Wales vs Norway?

Our pick is Norway to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.

Who will win Wales vs Norway?

On our numbers Wales have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Norway 65%.

How many goals will there be in Wales vs Norway?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Wales vs Norway?

Our predicted score is Wales 0–1 Norway, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Wales vs Norway?

Wales vs Norway (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Cardiff City Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Wales v Norway: numbers & prediction