Greece vs Netherlands: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 1 October the UEFA Nations League brings Greece against Netherlands at Toumba Stadium. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Greece are 2nd on 8 points after 4 matches; Netherlands are 1st with 8. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Greece, last 5: WWLDD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Germany, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Netherlands, last 5: WDDWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Serbia, away. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.
Momentum favours Netherlands, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Greece.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Greece 1.0 xG, Netherlands 1.2 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Greece 33%, draw 22%, Netherlands 45%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.57.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Greece 1–1 Netherlands. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Greece33%fair 3.02 · @3.20
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.30
Netherlands45%fair 2.21 · @2.05
2.25Expected goals
1.00Greece xG
1.25Netherlands xG
55%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–011%
0–011%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Greece 1.0 – 1.2 Netherlands expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Netherlands to win✗
45%
2.21
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.57
Draw no bet
Netherlands (draw no bet)
58%
1.73
–
Asian handicap
Greece +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Netherlands to score first✗
50%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Netherlands / FT Netherlands✗
24%
4.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.17
–
Recent results
Greece – last 6
WWLDDL
27 Sep
@ Germany
1–0
W
24 Sep
@ Serbia
2–1
W
7 Jun
vs Italy
0–1
L
4 Jun
@ Sweden
2–2
D
31 Mar
@ Hungary
0–0
D
27 Mar
vs Paraguay
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Netherlands – last 6
WDDWWD
27 Sep
@ Serbia
2–1
W
24 Sep
vs Germany
1–1
D
30 Jun
vs Morocco
1–1
D
26 Jun
@ Tunisia
3–1
W
20 Jun
vs Sweden
5–1
W
14 Jun
vs Japan
2–2
D
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Greece and Netherlands.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Greece vs Netherlands?
On our numbers Greece have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Netherlands 45%.
How many goals will there be in Greece vs Netherlands?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Greece vs Netherlands?
Our predicted score is Greece 1–1 Netherlands, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Greece vs Netherlands?
Greece vs Netherlands (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Toumba Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Azerbaijan0
Liechtenstein0
Denmark2
Portugal4
Wales2
Norway1
Rep. Of Ireland2
Austria2
Israel0
Kosovo0
Malta1
Gibraltar1