France 64%Draw 19%Belgium 17%Expected goals 1.27 – 0.40
64%
Betarazi pick
France to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
Picks by market
ResultFrance to win ✓64% · @1.50
Double chanceFrance or draw ✓83% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗6% · fair 16.47
France vs Belgium: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:45 WAT, Monday 5 October: France v Belgium in the UEFA Nations League, played at Stade de France. In the table, France are 1st on 10 points after 4 matches; Belgium are 3rd with 6.
Current form
France, last 5: DWWLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Italy, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Belgium, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Türkiye, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Head to head
When they last met (28 Sep 2026) it ended Belgium 0–1 France.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give France 1.3 xG, Belgium 0.4 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 77%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – France 64%, draw 19%, Belgium 17%.
Lower-risk option: France or draw (83%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was France to win (64%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: France 1–0 Belgium. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
France64%fair 1.56 · @1.50
Draw19%fair 5.25 · @4.20
Belgium17%fair 5.90 · @5.00
1.67Expected goals
1.27France xG
0.40Belgium xG
52%Both score
23%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–024%
0–019%
2–015%
1–110%
0–18%
3–06%
From our goals model: France 1.3 – 0.4 Belgium expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is France to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win France vs Belgium?
On our numbers France have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Belgium 17%.
How many goals will there be in France vs Belgium?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 23% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for France vs Belgium?
Our predicted score is France 1–0 Belgium, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is France vs Belgium?
France vs Belgium (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade de France.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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