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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Italy v Türkiye: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Italy

DWLWW
3–1
FT

Türkiye

LLLWL
Italy 63%Draw 18%Türkiye 19% Expected goals 2.02 – 0.98
63%
Betarazi pick

Italy to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.40Odds

Picks by market

ResultItaly to win ✓63% · @1.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.05

Italy vs Türkiye: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Monday 5 October the UEFA Nations League brings Italy against Türkiye at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Italy are 2nd on 7 points after 4 matches; Türkiye are 4th with 0.

Current form

Italy, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with France, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Türkiye, last 5: LLLWL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Belgium, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Momentum favours Italy, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.5 for Türkiye.

Head to head

When they last met (28 Sep 2026) it ended Türkiye 1–4 Italy.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Italy 2.0 xG, Türkiye 1.0 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 58% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Italy 63%, draw 18%, Türkiye 19%.
  • GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.67.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Italy to win (63%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Italy 2–0 Türkiye. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Italy63%fair 1.58 · @1.40
Draw18%fair 5.61 · @4.60
Türkiye19%fair 5.26 · @6.50
3.00Expected goals
2.02Italy xG
0.98Türkiye xG
58%Both score
58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–010%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%

From our goals model: Italy 2.0 – 1.0 Türkiye expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultItaly to win ✓63%1.581.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82%1.221.18
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓58%1.721.67
Draw no betItaly (draw no bet) ✓77%1.30–
Asian handicapItaly -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.62–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80%1.25–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓58%1.73–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗65%1.55–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓82%1.23–
First team to scoreItaly to score first ✓64%1.56–
Half-time resultItaly ahead at half-time ✓45%2.22–
Half-time / full-timeHT Italy / FT Italy ✓39%2.54–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.05–

Recent results

Italy – last 6

DWLWWW
2 Oct@ France1–1D
28 Sep@ Türkiye4–1W
25 Sepvs Belgium0–2L
7 Jun@ Greece1–0W
3 Jun@ Luxembourg1–0W
26 Marvs Northern Ireland2–0W
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Türkiye – last 6

LLLWLL
2 Oct@ Belgium0–3L
28 Sepvs Italy1–4L
25 Sepvs France0–1L
26 Junvs USA3–2W
20 Junvs Paraguay0–1L
14 Jun@ Australia0–2L
0.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

28 Sep 2026Türkiye v Italy1–4
Italy vs Türkiye head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1France4310+510
2Italy4211+37
3Belgium4202+16
4Türkiye4004-90

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
FT Cyprus2 Latvia1 165%1.62X21%3.50214%5.00 1.3–0.4xG 1Cyprus to win 65%@1.62 ✓
FT France4 Belgium1 164%1.50X19%4.20217%5.00 1.3–0.4xG 1France to win 64%@1.50 ✓
FT Ukraine1 Hungary2 137%2.40X23%3.00239%2.80 0.5–0.5xG NGNot both teams to score 59%@1.91 ✗
FT Northern Ireland0 Georgia0 152%2.30X25%2.90223%3.10 0.7–0.3xG 1XNorthern Ireland or draw 77%@1.33 ✓
FT Bosnia & Herzegovina1 Poland0 133%2.90X23%3.20244%2.30 1.4–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 62%@1.67 ✗
FT Romania0 Sweden1 116%4.00X20%3.70264%1.73 1.3–2.7xG X2Sweden or draw 84%@1.22 ✓
FT Montenegro0 Armenia0 165%1.50X20%4.00216%5.50 2.3–1.0xG 1Montenegro to win 65%@1.50 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Italy vs Türkiye?

Our pick is Italy to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.

Who will win Italy vs Türkiye?

On our numbers Italy have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Türkiye 19%.

How many goals will there be in Italy vs Türkiye?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Italy vs Türkiye?

Our predicted score is Italy 2–0 Türkiye, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Italy vs Türkiye?

Italy vs Türkiye (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.