Value bet: Northern Ireland to win @ 2.30 – our chance 52% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNorthern Ireland to win ✗52% · @2.30
Double chanceNorthern Ireland or draw ✓77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗27% · fair 3.77
Northern Ireland vs Georgia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 5 October the UEFA Nations League brings Northern Ireland against Georgia at Windsor Park. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Northern Ireland are 1st on 8 points after 4 matches; Georgia are 4th with 2.
Current form
Northern Ireland, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Ukraine, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Georgia, last 5: LDLWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Hungary, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Northern Ireland, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Georgia.
Head to head
When they last met (25 Sep 2026) it ended Georgia 0–1 Northern Ireland.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Northern Ireland 0.7 xG, Georgia 0.3 xG – a total near 1.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 92% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Northern Ireland 52%, draw 25%, Georgia 23%.
Lower-risk option: Northern Ireland or draw (77%) at 1.33.
GG/NG: NG (58%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Northern Ireland to win @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Northern Ireland or draw (77%, odds 1.33 – longer than our fair 1.30, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Northern Ireland 0–0 Georgia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Northern Ireland52%fair 1.91 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @2.90
Georgia23%fair 4.33 · @3.10
1.00Expected goals
0.72Northern Ireland xG
0.28Georgia xG
42%Both score
8%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–037%
1–027%
0–110%
2–010%
1–17%
2–13%
From our goals model: Northern Ireland 0.7 – 0.3 Georgia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
Our pick is Northern Ireland or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
On our numbers Northern Ireland have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Georgia 23%.
How many goals will there be in Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
We expect about 1.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 8% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
Our predicted score is Northern Ireland 0–0 Georgia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.0 goals in total.
When is Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
Northern Ireland vs Georgia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Windsor Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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