Romania 16%Draw 20%Sweden 64%Expected goals 1.33 – 2.67
84%
Betarazi pick
Sweden or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Sweden to win @ 1.73 – our chance 64% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSweden to win ✓64% · @1.73
Double chanceSweden or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗67% · @1.57
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.52
Romania vs Sweden: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Romania welcome Sweden to Arena Națională for a UEFA Nations League fixture on Monday 5 October (19:45 WAT). In the table, Romania are 4th on 0 points after 4 matches; Sweden are 1st with 10.
Current form
Romania, last 5: LLLWD Their latest outing: 0–6 defeat to Poland, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.7 conceded per game.
Sweden, last 5: DWWLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Bosnia & Herzegovina, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Sweden, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.7 for Romania.
Head to head
When they last met (25 Sep 2026) it ended Sweden 2–1 Romania.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Romania 1.3 xG, Sweden 2.7 xG – a total near 4.0. That is an open game on paper: 76% for three or more goals, 67% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Romania 16%, draw 20%, Sweden 64%.
Lower-risk option: Sweden or draw (84%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (67%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Sweden to win @1.73 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Sweden or draw (84%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Romania 1–2 Sweden. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Romania16%fair 6.35 · @4.00
Draw20%fair 5.03 · @3.70
Sweden64%fair 1.55 · @1.73
4.00Expected goals
1.33Romania xG
2.67Sweden xG
67%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–29%
1–38%
0–27%
1–17%
0–36%
2–26%
From our goals model: Romania 1.3 – 2.7 Sweden expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Sweden or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Romania vs Sweden?
On our numbers Romania have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sweden 64%.
How many goals will there be in Romania vs Sweden?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Romania vs Sweden?
Our predicted score is Romania 1–2 Sweden, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Romania vs Sweden?
Romania vs Sweden (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Arena Națională.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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