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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Italy v France: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Italy

WDWLW
Thu 12 Nov 2026

France

WDWWL
Italy 21%Draw 25%France 54% Expected goals 1.06 – 1.69
79%
Betarazi pick

France or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20

9/10Rating
1.20Odds

Picks by market

ResultFrance to win54% · @1.75
Double chanceFrance or draw79% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score62% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.33

Italy vs France: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

France travel to face Italy on Thursday 12 November in the UEFA Nations League, with San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza the venue – the ball rolls at 20:45 WAT. In the table, Italy are 2nd on 7 points after 4 matches; France are 1st with 10. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Italy, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Türkiye, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

France, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Belgium, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (2 Oct 2026) it ended France 1–1 Italy.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Italy 1.1 xG, France 1.7 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 62%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Italy 21%, draw 25%, France 54%.
  • Lower-risk option: France or draw (79%) at 1.20.
  • GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.57.

Betarazi verdict

We are going with France or draw (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Italy 1–1 France. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Italy21%fair 4.85 · @4.33
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @4.00
France54%fair 1.84 · @1.75
2.75Expected goals
1.06Italy xG
1.69France xG
62%Both score
55%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–06%

From our goals model: Italy 1.1 – 1.7 France expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

ItalyFrance
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average+22%+15%
Goals conceded vs average+4%-28%
Our expected goals here1.071.48

Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultFrance to win54%1.841.75
Double chanceFrance or draw79%1.261.20
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score62%1.621.57
Draw no betFrance (draw no bet)73%1.38–
Asian handicapItaly +1 (Asian handicap)63%1.59–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals78%1.291.18
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals55%1.821.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals66%1.511.50
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals82%1.221.20
First team to scoreFrance to score first58%1.74–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time41%2.44–
Half-time / full-timeHT France / FT France32%3.14–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210%10.33–

Recent results

Italy – last 6

WDWLWW
5 Octvs Türkiye3–1W
2 Oct@ France1–1D
28 Sep@ Türkiye4–1W
25 Sepvs Belgium0–2L
7 Jun@ Greece1–0W
3 Jun@ Luxembourg1–0W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

France – last 6

WDWWLL
5 Octvs Belgium4–1W
2 Octvs Italy1–1D
28 Sep@ Belgium1–0W
25 Sep@ Türkiye1–0W
18 Julvs England4–6L
14 Julvs Spain0–2L
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

2 Oct 2026France v Italy1–1
Italy vs France head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1France4310+510
2Italy4211+37
3Belgium4202+16
4Türkiye4004-90

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Türkiye Belgium 120%3.90X21%4.10258%1.80 1.0–2.0xG X2Belgium or draw 80%@1.25
Armenia Cyprus 137%2.30X27%3.25236%3.25 1.1–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.28
Czechia Spain 110%13.00X17%8.00274%1.18 0.9–2.5xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 65%@1.44
England Croatia 177%1.22X15%7.0028%11.00 3.1–1.0xG 1England to win 77%@1.22
Albania Finland 144%1.90X26%3.40230%4.33 1.3–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.22
San Marino Belarus 17%13.00X14%8.50278%1.14 0.6–2.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 79%@1.20
Montenegro Latvia 163%1.30X22%5.50215%9.50 1.7–0.8xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.25

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Italy vs France?

Our pick is France or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Italy vs France?

On our numbers Italy have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 25% and France 54%.

How many goals will there be in Italy vs France?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Italy vs France?

Our predicted score is Italy 1–1 France, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Italy vs France?

Italy vs France (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.