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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Montenegro v Latvia: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Gradski Stadion

Montenegro

DWWWD
Thu 12 Nov 2026

Latvia

LLDLL
Montenegro 63%Draw 22%Latvia 15% Expected goals 1.72 – 0.82
74%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.25

8/10Rating
1.25Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.38 – our chance 51% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultMontenegro to win63% · @1.30
Double chanceMontenegro or draw85% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @2.38
GoalsOver 1.5 goals74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.46

Montenegro vs Latvia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Thursday 12 November the UEFA Nations League brings Montenegro against Latvia at Gradski Stadion. Kick-off: 20:45 WAT. In the table, Montenegro are 1st on 10 points after 4 matches; Latvia are 4th with 1.

Current form

Montenegro, last 5: DWWWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Armenia, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Latvia, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Cyprus, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Momentum favours Montenegro, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.7 for Latvia.

Head to head

When they last met (2 Oct 2026) it ended Latvia 1–2 Montenegro.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Montenegro 1.7 xG, Latvia 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 51%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Montenegro 63%, draw 22%, Latvia 15%.
  • GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.38.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.38 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 51%.

Betarazi verdict

We are going with Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Montenegro 2–0 Latvia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Montenegro63%fair 1.58 · @1.30
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @5.50
Latvia15%fair 6.76 · @9.50
2.54Expected goals
1.72Montenegro xG
0.82Latvia xG
51%Both score
50%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%

From our goals model: Montenegro 1.7 – 0.8 Latvia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

MontenegroLatvia
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average+22%-22%
Goals conceded vs average-4%+4%
Our expected goals here1.550.92

Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMontenegro to win63%1.581.30
Double chanceMontenegro or draw85%1.171.04
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score51%1.962.38 ▲
Draw no betMontenegro (draw no bet)81%1.23–
Asian handicapLatvia +1.5 (Asian handicap)67%1.50–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals74%1.361.25
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals50%1.982.00
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals72%1.391.36
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals85%1.181.14
First team to scoreMontenegro to score first63%1.60–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time42%2.37–
Half-time / full-timeHT Montenegro / FT Montenegro37%2.74–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110%10.46–

Recent results

Montenegro – last 6

DWWWDW
5 Octvs Armenia0–0D
2 Oct@ Latvia2–1W
28 Sep@ Armenia3–2W
25 Sepvs Cyprus2–1W
5 Jun@ Slovakia2–2D
1 Jun@ Bulgaria1–0W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Latvia – last 6

LLDLLW
5 Oct@ Cyprus1–2L
2 Octvs Montenegro1–2L
28 Sepvs Cyprus0–0D
25 Sep@ Armenia0–2L
9 Junvs Faroe Islands0–1L
31 Marvs Gibraltar1–0W
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

2 Oct 2026Latvia v Montenegro1–2
Montenegro vs Latvia head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Montenegro4310+310
2Cyprus4211+27
3Armenia4112-14
4Latvia4013-41

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Türkiye Belgium 120%3.90X21%4.10258%1.80 1.0–2.0xG X2Belgium or draw 80%@1.25
Armenia Cyprus 137%2.30X27%3.25236%3.25 1.1–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.28
Italy France 121%4.33X25%4.00254%1.75 1.1–1.7xG X2France or draw 79%@1.20
Czechia Spain 110%13.00X17%8.00274%1.18 0.9–2.5xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 65%@1.44
England Croatia 177%1.22X15%7.0028%11.00 3.1–1.0xG 1England to win 77%@1.22
Albania Finland 144%1.90X26%3.40230%4.33 1.3–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.22
San Marino Belarus 17%13.00X14%8.50278%1.14 0.6–2.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 79%@1.20

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Montenegro vs Latvia?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Montenegro vs Latvia?

On our numbers Montenegro have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Latvia 15%.

How many goals will there be in Montenegro vs Latvia?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Montenegro vs Latvia?

Our predicted score is Montenegro 2–0 Latvia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Montenegro vs Latvia?

Montenegro vs Latvia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Gradski Stadion.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.