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San Marino v Belarus: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · San Marino Stadium

San Marino

LLLLL
Thu 12 Nov 2026

Belarus

WWDLD
San Marino 7%Draw 14%Belarus 78% Expected goals 0.58 – 2.39
79%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20

9/10Rating
1.20Odds

Picks by market

ResultBelarus to win78% · @1.14
Double chanceBelarus or draw93% · @1.01
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score54% · @1.33
GoalsOver 1.5 goals79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–312% · fair 8.61

San Marino vs Belarus: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Thursday 12 November the UEFA Nations League brings San Marino against Belarus at San Marino Stadium. Kick-off: 20:45 WAT. In the table, San Marino are 4th on 0 points after 4 matches; Belarus are 2nd with 7.

Current form

San Marino, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Albania, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Belarus, last 5: WWDLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Finland, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Belarus, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.0 for San Marino.

Head to head

When they last met (3 Oct 2026) it ended Belarus 4–0 San Marino.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give San Marino 0.6 xG, Belarus 2.4 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 57% and GG at 46%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – San Marino 7%, draw 14%, Belarus 78%.
  • GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.33.

Betarazi verdict

We are going with Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: San Marino 0–2 Belarus. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

San Marino7%fair 13.40 · @13.00
Draw14%fair 7.06 · @8.50
Belarus78%fair 1.28 · @1.14
2.97Expected goals
0.58San Marino xG
2.39Belarus xG
46%Both score
57%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–215%
0–112%
0–312%
1–29%
1–17%
0–47%

From our goals model: San Marino 0.6 – 2.4 Belarus expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

San MarinoBelarus
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average-29%-0%
Goals conceded vs average+92%-32%
Our expected goals here0.602.35

Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBelarus to win78%1.281.14
Double chanceBelarus or draw93%1.081.01
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score54%1.841.33
Draw no betBelarus (draw no bet)91%1.10–
Asian handicapBelarus -1 (Asian handicap)71%1.41–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals79%1.271.20
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals57%1.751.65
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals65%1.541.44
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals81%1.241.17
First team to scoreBelarus to score first76%1.31–
Half-time resultBelarus ahead at half-time56%1.78–
Half-time / full-timeHT Belarus / FT Belarus53%1.89–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–312%8.61–

Recent results

San Marino – last 6

LLLLLL
6 Oct@ Albania1–2L
3 Oct@ Belarus0–4L
29 Sepvs Albania0–3L
26 Sepvs Finland0–7L
9 Jun@ Azerbaijan1–2L
5 Junvs Bangladesh1–2L
0.5Scored / game
3.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Belarus – last 6

WWDLDW
6 Octvs Finland1–0W
3 Octvs San Marino4–0W
29 Sep@ Finland0–0D
26 Sep@ Albania0–2L
9 Junvs Burkina Faso2–2D
5 Junvs Syria4–1W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

3 Oct 2026Belarus v San Marino4–0
San Marino vs Belarus head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Albania4301+59
2Belarus4211+37
3Finland4211+77
4San Marino4004-150

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Türkiye Belgium 120%3.90X21%4.10258%1.80 1.0–2.0xG X2Belgium or draw 80%@1.25
Armenia Cyprus 137%2.30X27%3.25236%3.25 1.1–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.28
Italy France 121%4.33X25%4.00254%1.75 1.1–1.7xG X2France or draw 79%@1.20
Czechia Spain 110%13.00X17%8.00274%1.18 0.9–2.5xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 65%@1.44
England Croatia 177%1.22X15%7.0028%11.00 3.1–1.0xG 1England to win 77%@1.22
Albania Finland 144%1.90X26%3.40230%4.33 1.3–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.22
Montenegro Latvia 163%1.30X22%5.50215%9.50 1.7–0.8xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.25

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for San Marino vs Belarus?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win San Marino vs Belarus?

On our numbers San Marino have a 7% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Belarus 78%.

How many goals will there be in San Marino vs Belarus?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for San Marino vs Belarus?

Our predicted score is San Marino 0–2 Belarus, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is San Marino vs Belarus?

San Marino vs Belarus (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at San Marino Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.