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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Albania v Finland: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Arena Kombëtare

Albania

WLWWL
Thu 12 Nov 2026

Finland

LWDWL
Albania 44%Draw 26%Finland 30% Expected goals 1.27 – 1.26
76%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.22

8/10Rating
1.22Odds
2

Value bet: Finland to win @ 4.33 – our chance 30% vs 23% implied by the price (edge +30%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultAlbania to win44% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 12.34

Albania vs Finland: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Albania welcome Finland to Arena Kombëtare for a UEFA Nations League fixture on Thursday 12 November (20:45 WAT). In the table, Albania are 1st on 9 points after 4 matches; Finland are 3rd with 7. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Albania, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over San Marino, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Finland, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Belarus, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (3 Oct 2026) it ended Finland 2–1 Albania.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Albania 1.3 xG, Finland 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 55%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Albania 44%, draw 26%, Finland 30%.
  • GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.10.
  • Price worth noting: Finland to win @4.33 – the bookmaker implies 23%, our ratings say 30%.

Betarazi verdict

Our call: Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Albania 1–1 Finland. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Albania44%fair 2.28 · @1.90
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.40
Finland30%fair 3.34 · @4.33
2.53Expected goals
1.27Albania xG
1.26Finland xG
55%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

From our goals model: Albania 1.3 – 1.3 Finland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

AlbaniaFinland
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average+13%+37%
Goals conceded vs average-14%-25%
Our expected goals here1.041.44

Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAlbania to win44%2.281.90
Double chanceEither team to win74%1.361.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score55%1.822.10 ▲
Draw no betAlbania (draw no bet)59%1.68–
Asian handicapFinland +0.5 (Asian handicap)63%1.59–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals69%1.451.40
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals56%1.791.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals76%1.321.22
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals88%1.131.07
First team to scoreAlbania to score first46%2.16–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time44%2.28–
Half-time / full-timeHT Albania / FT Albania21%4.72–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18%12.34–

Recent results

Albania – last 6

WLWWLL
6 Octvs San Marino2–1W
3 Oct@ Finland1–2L
29 Sep@ San Marino3–0W
26 Sepvs Belarus2–0W
6 Junvs Luxembourg0–1L
3 Junvs Israel0–1L
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Finland – last 6

LWDWLL
6 Oct@ Belarus0–1L
3 Octvs Albania2–1W
29 Sepvs Belarus0–0D
26 Sep@ San Marino7–0W
5 Jun@ Hungary1–2L
31 May@ Germany0–4L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

3 Oct 2026Finland v Albania2–1
Albania vs Finland head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Albania4301+59
2Belarus4211+37
3Finland4211+77
4San Marino4004-150

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Türkiye Belgium 120%3.90X21%4.10258%1.80 1.0–2.0xG X2Belgium or draw 80%@1.25
Armenia Cyprus 137%2.30X27%3.25236%3.25 1.1–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.28
Italy France 121%4.33X25%4.00254%1.75 1.1–1.7xG X2France or draw 79%@1.20
Czechia Spain 110%13.00X17%8.00274%1.18 0.9–2.5xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 65%@1.44
England Croatia 177%1.22X15%7.0028%11.00 3.1–1.0xG 1England to win 77%@1.22
San Marino Belarus 17%13.00X14%8.50278%1.14 0.6–2.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 79%@1.20
Montenegro Latvia 163%1.30X22%5.50215%9.50 1.7–0.8xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.25

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Albania vs Finland?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Albania vs Finland?

On our numbers Albania have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Finland 30%.

How many goals will there be in Albania vs Finland?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Albania vs Finland?

Our predicted score is Albania 1–1 Finland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Albania vs Finland?

Albania vs Finland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Arena Kombëtare.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.