England 77%Draw 15%Croatia 8%Expected goals 3.08 – 0.96
77%
Betarazi pick
England to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.22
8/10Rating
1.22Odds
O3.5
Value bet: Over 3.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultEngland to win77% · @1.22
Double chanceEngland or draw92% · @1.05
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score50% · @1.83
GoalsOver 2.5 goals71% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–09% · fair 11.67
England vs Croatia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Croatia travel to face England on Thursday 12 November in the UEFA Nations League, with Wembley Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 20:45 WAT. In the table, England are 2nd on 9 points after 4 matches; Croatia are 3rd with 3.
Current form
England, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Czechia, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. 3.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Croatia, last 5: LLLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Spain, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours England, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Croatia.
Head to head
When they last met (3 Oct 2026) it ended Croatia 0–7 England. The last 2 head-to-heads: England 2 wins, Croatia 0, draws 0. Those games averaged 6.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give England 3.1 xG, Croatia 1.0 xG – a total near 4.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 71% and GG at 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – England 77%, draw 15%, Croatia 8%.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Over 3.5 goals @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 51%.
Betarazi verdict
Our call: England to win (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: England 3–0 Croatia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
England77%fair 1.30 · @1.22
Draw15%fair 6.71 · @7.00
Croatia8%fair 12.11 · @11.00
4.04Expected goals
3.08England xG
0.96Croatia xG
50%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
3–09%
2–08%
3–18%
2–18%
4–07%
4–16%
From our goals model: England 3.1 – 1.0 Croatia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
England
Croatia
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average
+67%
-9%
Goals conceded vs average
-16%
+64%
Our expected goals here
3.34
0.95
Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is England to win with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win England vs Croatia?
On our numbers England have a 77% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Croatia 8%.
How many goals will there be in England vs Croatia?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for England vs Croatia?
Our predicted score is England 3–0 Croatia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is England vs Croatia?
England vs Croatia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Wembley Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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