Sarmiento Resistencia 44%Draw 27%Tucuman Central 29%Expected goals 1.32 – 0.98
65%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 53% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSarmiento Resistencia to win ✓44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.67
Sarmiento Resistencia vs Tucuman Central: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Sunday 28 June: Sarmiento Resistencia v Tucuman Central in the Torneo Federal A, played at Estadio Centenario. In the table, Sarmiento Resistencia are 35th, in the drop zone, on 15 points after 16 matches; Tucuman Central are 32nd (lower half) with 17. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Sarmiento Resistencia, last 5: LWLLL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to San Martin Formosa, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Tucuman Central, last 5: WLWLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Boca Unidos, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 4 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Tucuman Central, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.5 for Sarmiento Resistencia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sarmiento Resistencia 1.3 xG, Tucuman Central 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sarmiento Resistencia 44%, draw 27%, Tucuman Central 29%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.20.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sarmiento Resistencia 1–1 Tucuman Central. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sarmiento Resistencia44%fair 2.28 · @2.05
Draw27%fair 3.65 · @2.90
Tucuman Central29%fair 3.47 · @3.40
2.30Expected goals
1.32Sarmiento Resistencia xG
0.98Tucuman Central xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–010%
0–110%
2–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Sarmiento Resistencia 1.3 – 1.0 Tucuman Central expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sarmiento Resistencia
Tucuman Central
Attack vs Torneo Federal A average
-31%
-8%
Goals conceded vs average
+57%
+77%
Our expected goals here
1.46
1.03
Our own ratings from every Torneo Federal A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sarmiento Resistencia to win✓
44%
2.28
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.38
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
2.20 ▲
Draw no bet
Sarmiento Resistencia (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.66
–
Asian handicap
Tucuman Central +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.05
First team to score
Sarmiento Resistencia to score first✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sarmiento Resistencia / FT Sarmiento Resistencia✗
26%
3.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.67
–
Recent results
Sarmiento Resistencia – last 6
LWLLLL
21 Jun
@ San Martin Formosa
0–3
L
14 Jun
vs Defensores de Vilelas
2–0
W
6 Jun
@ Bartolomé Mitre
0–2
L
31 May
vs Sarmiento de La Banda
0–1
L
23 May
@ Juventud Antoniana
0–2
L
17 May
@ Sol de América
0–3
L
0.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Tucuman Central – last 6
WLWLLL
21 Jun
vs Boca Unidos
2–0
W
7 Jun
@ San Martin Formosa
2–3
L
31 May
vs Defensores de Vilelas
2–0
W
25 May
@ Bartolomé Mitre
0–1
L
17 May
@ Sarmiento de La Banda
0–1
L
19 Apr
@ Boca Unidos
1–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sarmiento Resistencia and Tucuman Central.
What is the prediction for Sarmiento Resistencia vs Tucuman Central?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Sarmiento Resistencia vs Tucuman Central?
On our numbers Sarmiento Resistencia have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Tucuman Central 29%.
How many goals will there be in Sarmiento Resistencia vs Tucuman Central?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sarmiento Resistencia vs Tucuman Central?
Our predicted score is Sarmiento Resistencia 1–1 Tucuman Central, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Sarmiento Resistencia vs Tucuman Central?
Sarmiento Resistencia vs Tucuman Central (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 28 June 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Centenario.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
