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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Treze v Lagarto: numbers & prediction

Serie D · Brazil

Lagarto

DDDL

Treze 50%Draw 26%Lagarto 24% Expected goals 1.60 – 1.19

56%

Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.78 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓

4/10Rating

1.95Odds

Picks by market

ResultTreze to win ✗50% · @1.67

Double chanceTreze or draw ✗76% · @1.15

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.95

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.70

Treze vs Lagarto: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Treze welcome Lagarto for a Serie D fixture on Saturday 30 May (21:00 WAT).

Current form

Lagarto, last 4: DDDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Retrô, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Treze 1.6 xG, Lagarto 1.2 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 56%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Treze 50%, draw 26%, Lagarto 24%.
Lower-risk option: Treze or draw (76%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.95.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.78, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Treze 1–1 Lagarto. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Treze50%fair 1.99 · @1.67

Draw26%fair 3.86 · @3.25

Lagarto24%fair 4.20 · @4.60

2.79Expected goals

1.60Treze xG

1.19Lagarto xG

56%Both score

53%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%

1–010%

2–19%

2–08%

0–17%

1–27%

From our goals model: Treze 1.6 – 1.2 Lagarto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Treze to win ✗	50%	1.99	1.67
Double chance	Treze or draw ✗	76%	1.31	1.15
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	56%	1.78	1.95 ▲
Draw no bet	Treze (draw no bet) ✗	68%	1.47	–
Asian handicap	Lagarto +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	69%	1.45	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	77%	1.30	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	53%	1.89	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	69%	1.44	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	85%	1.18	–
First team to score	Treze to score first ✓	54%	1.86	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	41%	2.43	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Treze / FT Treze ✗	28%	3.56	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	10.70	–

Recent results

Treze – last 2

22 Feb	vs Nacional de Patos	1–2	L
19 Feb	@ Botafogo PB	0–2	L

0.5Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Lagarto – last 4

DDDL

24 May	@ Retrô	1–1	D
17 May	vs Sergipe	1–1	D
5 Apr	@ Decisão	1–1	D
22 Feb	vs América SE	0–3	L

0.8Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

75%Both scored

25%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Treze and Lagarto.

Treze vs Lagarto head-to-head page →

More Serie D predictions

Água Santa4

Madureira1 153%1.62X27%3.10220%5.50 1.5–0.9xG GGBoth teams to score 52%@2.20 ✓

Aparecidense1

Primavera MG1 151%1.85X27%3.00222%3.80 1.6–1.0xG 1XAparecidense or draw 78%@1.22 ✓

Iguatu2

Parnahyba2 156%1.67X24%3.10220%4.80 1.7–0.9xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@2.20 ✓

Joinville2

Guarany de Bagé0 163%1.44X24%3.25213%8.00 1.7–0.7xG 1Joinville to win 63%@1.44 ✓

ABECAT Ouvidorense2

Ipatinga1 143%2.90X27%2.60230%2.45 1.5–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 53%@2.10 ✓

Porto BA1

Tombense3 126%3.70X25%3.10248%1.91 1.1–1.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.20 ✗

Pouso Alegre1

Portuguesa2 114%4.60X25%2.90261%1.75 0.5–1.5xG 2Portuguesa to win 61%@1.75 ✓

Vitória ES1

Real Noroeste1 163%1.50X25%3.50213%6.00 1.5–0.5xG 1Vitória ES to win 63%@1.50 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Treze vs Lagarto?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.

Who will win Treze vs Lagarto?

On our numbers Treze have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lagarto 24%.

How many goals will there be in Treze vs Lagarto?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Treze vs Lagarto?

Our predicted score is Treze 1–1 Lagarto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Treze vs Lagarto?

Treze vs Lagarto (Serie D) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.