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Equatorial Guinea v Zimbabwe: numbers & prediction

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification · Africa · Nuevo Estadio de Malabo

Equatorial Guinea

WLLD
Thu 12 Nov 2026

Zimbabwe

LWLW
Equatorial Guinea 44%Draw 24%Zimbabwe 32% Expected goals 1.34 – 1.09
65%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.48

6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2

Value bet: Zimbabwe to win @ 3.77 – our chance 32% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultEquatorial Guinea to win44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.32
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals80% · @1.09
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.60

Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Thursday 12 November the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification brings Equatorial Guinea against Zimbabwe at Nuevo Estadio de Malabo. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT. In the table, Equatorial Guinea are 2nd on 8 points after 6 matches; Zimbabwe are 2nd with 9. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Equatorial Guinea, last 4: WLLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Sierra Leone, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Zimbabwe, last 4: LWLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Congo DR, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Zimbabwe, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Equatorial Guinea.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Equatorial Guinea 1.3 xG, Zimbabwe 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Equatorial Guinea 44%, draw 24%, Zimbabwe 32%.
  • GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.20.
  • Price worth noting: Zimbabwe to win @3.77 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 32%.

Betarazi verdict

Our call: Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Equatorial Guinea 1–1 Zimbabwe. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Equatorial Guinea44%fair 2.27 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.06
Zimbabwe32%fair 3.13 · @3.77
2.43Expected goals
1.34Equatorial Guinea xG
1.09Zimbabwe xG
51%Both score
40%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%

From our goals model: Equatorial Guinea 1.3 – 1.1 Zimbabwe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultEquatorial Guinea to win44%2.272.05
Double chanceEither team to win76%1.321.32
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score51%1.972.20 ▲
Draw no betEquatorial Guinea (draw no bet)58%1.73–
Asian handicapZimbabwe +1 (Asian handicap)75%1.34–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals65%1.531.48
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals60%1.661.44
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals80%1.251.09
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals91%1.101.01
First team to scoreEquatorial Guinea to score first50%1.99–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time45%2.24–
Half-time / full-timeHT Equatorial Guinea / FT Equatorial Guinea25%4.05–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19%11.60–

Recent results

Equatorial Guinea – last 4

WLLD
28 Sepvs Sierra Leone1–0W
24 Sep@ Congo DR0–2L
8 Junvs Comoros0–1L
31 Marvs Madagascar1–1D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Zimbabwe – last 4

LWLW
28 Sepvs Congo DR1–2L
24 Sep@ Sierra Leone3–2W
26 May@ Nigeria0–2L
31 Marvs Zambia U231–0W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Equatorial Guinea and Zimbabwe.

Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe head-to-head page →

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Algeria6510+1416
2Equatorial Guinea6222-38
3Togo6123-35
4Liberia6114-84

More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions

League hub
Ghana Somalia 177%1.05X17%10.2026%26.00 2.3–0.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 63%@1.65
Congo DR Sierra Leone 172%1.20X17%5.75211%14.20 2.1–0.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.24
Guinea Eritrea 174%1.12X18%7.2028%17.50 2.3–0.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.52
Madagascar Guinea-Bissau 126%3.11X24%3.06250%2.32 0.9–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 66%@1.41
Benin Central African Republic 161%1.56X21%3.65218%6.09 1.7–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 67%@1.38
Cameroon Namibia 170%1.24X19%5.05211%13.30 1.8–0.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.20
Ivory Coast Gambia 174%1.18X16%6.2029%14.60 2.4–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.39
Senegal Sudan 177%1.07X16%8.9027%24.00 2.3–0.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.63

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.

Who will win Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe?

On our numbers Equatorial Guinea have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Zimbabwe 32%.

How many goals will there be in Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe?

Our predicted score is Equatorial Guinea 1–1 Zimbabwe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe?

Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Nuevo Estadio de Malabo.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.