Wednesday 11 November 2026 14 live now 66% correct · last 30 days JackpotsNewsTelegram18+
BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Madagascar v Guinea-Bissau: numbers & prediction

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification · Africa · George V Stadium

Madagascar

DLLD
Thu 12 Nov 2026

Guinea-Bissau

WWD
Madagascar 26%Draw 24%Guinea-Bissau 50% Expected goals 0.94 – 1.44
66%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.41

6/10Rating
1.41Odds
2

Value bet: Guinea-Bissau to win @ 2.32 – our chance 50% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultGuinea-Bissau to win50% · @2.32
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.32
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @1.99
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.11

Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Madagascar welcome Guinea-Bissau to George V Stadium for a Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification fixture on Thursday 12 November (17:00 WAT). In the table, Madagascar are 4th on 2 points after 6 matches; Guinea-Bissau are 3rd with 5. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Madagascar, last 4: DLLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Tanzania, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Guinea-Bissau, last 3: WWD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Nigeria, at home. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Guinea-Bissau, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.5 for Madagascar.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Madagascar 0.9 xG, Guinea-Bissau 1.4 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 54%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Madagascar 26%, draw 24%, Guinea-Bissau 50%.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.99.
  • Price worth noting: Guinea-Bissau to win @2.32 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 50%.

Betarazi verdict

Our call: Over 1.5 goals (66%, odds 1.41). Most likely score in line with that pick: Madagascar 1–1 Guinea-Bissau. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Madagascar26%fair 3.84 · @3.11
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.06
Guinea-Bissau50%fair 2.01 · @2.32
2.38Expected goals
0.94Madagascar xG
1.44Guinea-Bissau xG
54%Both score
41%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–113%
1–113%
0–210%
0–09%
1–29%
1–09%

From our goals model: Madagascar 0.9 – 1.4 Guinea-Bissau expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultGuinea-Bissau to win50%2.012.32 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win76%1.321.32
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score54%1.851.99 ▲
Draw no betGuinea-Bissau (draw no bet)66%1.52–
Asian handicapMadagascar +1 (Asian handicap)68%1.46–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals66%1.511.41
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals59%1.691.53
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals79%1.271.14
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals90%1.111.01
First team to scoreGuinea-Bissau to score first55%1.83–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time45%2.22–
Half-time / full-timeHT Guinea-Bissau / FT Guinea-Bissau29%3.48–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29%11.11–

Recent results

Madagascar – last 4

DLLD
29 Sepvs Tanzania1–1D
25 Sep@ Nigeria1–2L
2 Jun@ Morocco0–4L
31 Mar@ Equatorial Guinea1–1D
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Guinea-Bissau – last 3

WWD
29 Sepvs Nigeria3–0W
25 Sep@ Tanzania2–0W
31 Mar@ Burkina Faso1–1D
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau.

Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau head-to-head page →

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Comoros6330+312
2Tunisia6312+110
3Gambia622208
4Madagascar6024-42

More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions

League hub
Ghana Somalia 177%1.05X17%10.2026%26.00 2.3–0.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 63%@1.65
Congo DR Sierra Leone 172%1.20X17%5.75211%14.20 2.1–0.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.24
Equatorial Guinea Zimbabwe 144%2.05X24%3.06232%3.77 1.3–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 65%@1.48
Guinea Eritrea 174%1.12X18%7.2028%17.50 2.3–0.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.52
Benin Central African Republic 161%1.56X21%3.65218%6.09 1.7–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 67%@1.38
Cameroon Namibia 170%1.24X19%5.05211%13.30 1.8–0.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.20
Ivory Coast Gambia 174%1.18X16%6.2029%14.60 2.4–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.39
Senegal Sudan 177%1.07X16%8.9027%24.00 2.3–0.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.63

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.41.

Who will win Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?

On our numbers Madagascar have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Guinea-Bissau 50%.

How many goals will there be in Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?

Our predicted score is Madagascar 1–1 Guinea-Bissau, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?

Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at George V Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.