Guinea v Eritrea Prediction & Expected Goals (12 Nov) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultGuinea to win74% · @1.12

Double chanceGuinea or draw92% · @1.02

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score53% · @1.46

GoalsOver 1.5 goals79% · @1.13

Correct scoreCorrect score 3–011% · fair 9.19

Guinea vs Eritrea: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Guinea welcome Eritrea to Stade du 28 Septembre for a Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification fixture on Thursday 12 November (17:00 WAT).

Current form

Guinea, last 5: WLLLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Kenya, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Eritrea, last 4: LDWW Their latest outing: 0–5 defeat to South Africa, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Eritrea, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Guinea.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Guinea 2.3 xG, Eritrea 0.6 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 57%, GG 47%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Guinea 74%, draw 18%, Eritrea 8%.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.46.

Betarazi verdict

Our call: Under 3.5 goals (64%, odds 1.52). Most likely score in line with that pick: Guinea 2–0 Eritrea. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Guinea74%fair 1.35 · @1.12

Draw18%fair 5.61 · @7.20

Eritrea8%fair 12.72 · @17.50

2.88Expected goals

2.26Guinea xG

0.61Eritrea xG

47%Both score

57%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–014%

1–013%

3–011%

2–19%

1–18%

3–17%

From our goals model: Guinea 2.3 – 0.6 Eritrea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Guinea to win	74%	1.35	1.12
Double chance	Guinea or draw	92%	1.09	1.02
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score	53%	1.87	1.46
Draw no bet	Guinea (draw no bet)	90%	1.11	–
Asian handicap	Guinea -1 (Asian handicap)	67%	1.49	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.26	1.13
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.75	1.52
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	64%	1.55	1.52
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals	81%	1.24	1.16
First team to score	Guinea to score first	74%	1.35	–
Half-time result	Guinea ahead at half-time	54%	1.86	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Guinea / FT Guinea	50%	1.99	–
Correct score	Correct score 3–0	11%	9.19	–

Guinea – last 5

WLLLD

1 Oct	vs Kenya	1–0	W
26 Sep	@ South Africa	1–2	L
4 Jun	@ Northern Ireland	0–1	L
31 Mar	vs Benin	0–1	L
27 Mar	vs Togo	2–2	D

0.8Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

40%Both scored

40%Over 2.5

Eritrea – last 4

LDWW

30 Sep	vs South Africa	0–5	L
26 Sep	@ Kenya	1–1	D
31 Mar	@ Eswatini	2–1	W
25 Mar	vs Eswatini	2–0	W

1.3Scored / game

1.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	6	4	0	2	+4	12
2	Tanzania	6	3	1	2	+1	10
3	Guinea	6	3	0	3	+4	9
4	Ethiopia	6	1	1	4	-9	4

Team

Pts

-9

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Guinea vs Eritrea?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.52.

Who will win Guinea vs Eritrea?

On our numbers Guinea have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Eritrea 8%.

How many goals will there be in Guinea vs Eritrea?

We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Guinea vs Eritrea?

Our predicted score is Guinea 2–0 Eritrea, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.

When is Guinea vs Eritrea?

Guinea vs Eritrea (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade du 28 Septembre.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Guinea v Eritrea: numbers & prediction