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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Mali v Rwanda: numbers & prediction

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification · Africa · Stade du 26 Mars

Mali

WWD
Fri 13 Nov 2026

Rwanda

WWWW
Mali 68%Draw 18%Rwanda 14% Expected goals 2.04 – 0.76
74%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.26

8/10Rating
1.26Odds

Picks by market

ResultMali to win68% · @1.27
Double chanceMali or draw86% · @1.01
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score51% · @1.46
GoalsOver 1.5 goals74% · @1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–09% · fair 11.65

Mali vs Rwanda: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Rwanda travel to face Mali on Friday 13 November in the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification, with Stade du 26 Mars the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Mali are 1st on 14 points after 6 matches; Rwanda are 3rd with 8.

Current form

Mali, last 3: WWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Liberia, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Rwanda, last 4: WWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Cape Verde Islands, away. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Rwanda, collecting 3.0 points per game to 2.3 for Mali.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Mali 2.0 xG, Rwanda 0.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 49%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Mali 68%, draw 18%, Rwanda 14%.
  • GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.46.

Betarazi verdict

We are going with Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.26). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mali 2–0 Rwanda. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Mali68%fair 1.47 · @1.27
Draw18%fair 5.48 · @5.00
Rwanda14%fair 7.27 · @10.80
2.81Expected goals
2.04Mali xG
0.76Rwanda xG
49%Both score
51%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–013%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%

From our goals model: Mali 2.0 – 0.8 Rwanda expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMali to win68%1.471.27
Double chanceMali or draw86%1.161.01
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score51%1.961.46
Draw no betMali (draw no bet)83%1.20–
Asian handicapMali -0.5 (Asian handicap)67%1.49–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals74%1.341.26
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals51%1.971.92
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals70%1.421.26
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals85%1.181.06
First team to scoreMali to score first68%1.46–
Half-time resultMali ahead at half-time48%2.08–
Half-time / full-timeHT Mali / FT Mali44%2.30–
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–09%11.65–

Recent results

Mali – last 3

WWD
29 Sep@ Liberia1–0W
25 Sepvs Cape Verde Islands3–1W
31 Mar@ Russia0–0D
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Rwanda – last 4

WWWW
29 Sep@ Cape Verde Islands2–1W
25 Sepvs Liberia3–1W
30 Marvs Estonia2–0W
27 Marvs Grenada4–0W
2.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Mali and Rwanda.

Mali vs Rwanda head-to-head page →

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Nigeria6321+611
2Benin622208
3Rwanda6222-28
4Libya6123-45

More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions

League hub
Comoros Congo 157%1.83X27%3.20216%4.56 1.4–0.6xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 65%@1.42
Mozambique Ethiopia 162%1.54X24%3.74213%6.13 1.7–0.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 66%@1.36
Zambia Burundi 161%1.58X25%3.62214%5.85 1.9–0.8xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.39
Burkina Faso Mauritania 162%1.53X24%3.72214%6.37 1.7–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 67%@1.43
Cape Verde Islands Liberia 164%1.25X21%5.10215%12.00 1.8–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.26
Gabon Lesotho 169%1.22X19%5.45211%13.00 1.8–0.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.28
Nigeria Tanzania 176%1.11X17%7.5027%18.50 2.3–0.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 65%@1.47
South Africa Kenya 167%1.27X18%4.90215%11.30 1.9–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.32

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Mali vs Rwanda?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.

Who will win Mali vs Rwanda?

On our numbers Mali have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Rwanda 14%.

How many goals will there be in Mali vs Rwanda?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Mali vs Rwanda?

Our predicted score is Mali 2–0 Rwanda, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Mali vs Rwanda?

Mali vs Rwanda (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade du 26 Mars.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.