Wednesday 11 November 2026 15 live now 66% correct · last 30 days JackpotsNewsTelegram18+
BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Mozambique v Ethiopia: numbers & prediction

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification · Africa

Mozambique

WDL
Fri 13 Nov 2026

Ethiopia

LLDWW
Mozambique 62%Draw 24%Ethiopia 13% Expected goals 1.65 – 0.62
66%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.36

6/10Rating
1.36Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.26 – our chance 51% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultMozambique to win62% · @1.54
Double chanceMozambique or draw87% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @2.26
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.48

Mozambique vs Ethiopia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

14:00 WAT, Friday 13 November: Mozambique v Ethiopia in the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification. In the table, Mozambique are 2nd on 11 points after 6 matches; Ethiopia are 4th with 4.

Current form

Mozambique, last 3: WDL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Sudan, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Ethiopia, last 5: LLDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Senegal, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Mozambique 1.7 xG, Ethiopia 0.6 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Mozambique 62%, draw 24%, Ethiopia 13%.
  • GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.26.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.26 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 51%.

Betarazi verdict

Our call: Over 1.5 goals (66%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mozambique 2–0 Ethiopia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Mozambique62%fair 1.61 · @1.54
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.74
Ethiopia13%fair 7.46 · @6.13
2.27Expected goals
1.65Mozambique xG
0.62Ethiopia xG
51%Both score
41%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%

From our goals model: Mozambique 1.7 – 0.6 Ethiopia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMozambique to win62%1.611.54
Double chanceMozambique or draw87%1.151.08
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score51%1.972.26 ▲
Draw no betMozambique (draw no bet)82%1.22–
Asian handicapMozambique -0.5 (Asian handicap)62%1.60–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals66%1.511.36
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals59%1.691.61
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals79%1.271.17
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals90%1.111.03
First team to scoreMozambique to score first65%1.53–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time45%2.25–
Half-time / full-timeHT Mozambique / FT Mozambique39%2.59–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19%11.48–

Recent results

Mozambique – last 3

WDL
29 Sepvs Sudan4–1W
25 Sepvs Senegal1–1D
9 Jun@ Indonesia0–1L
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Ethiopia – last 6

LLDWWW
29 Sepvs Senegal0–1L
25 Sep@ Sudan0–1L
9 Junvs Malawi1–1D
6 Junvs Malawi1–0W
31 Marvs Sao Tome and Principe1–0W
27 Mar@ Sao Tome and Principe3–0W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Mozambique and Ethiopia.

Mozambique vs Ethiopia head-to-head page →

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Congo DR6402+412
2Tanzania6312+110
3Guinea6303+49
4Ethiopia6114-94

More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions

League hub
Comoros Congo 157%1.83X27%3.20216%4.56 1.4–0.6xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 65%@1.42
Zambia Burundi 161%1.58X25%3.62214%5.85 1.9–0.8xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.39
Burkina Faso Mauritania 162%1.53X24%3.72214%6.37 1.7–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 67%@1.43
Cape Verde Islands Liberia 164%1.25X21%5.10215%12.00 1.8–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.26
Gabon Lesotho 169%1.22X19%5.45211%13.00 1.8–0.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.28
Nigeria Tanzania 176%1.11X17%7.5027%18.50 2.3–0.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 65%@1.47
South Africa Kenya 167%1.27X18%4.90215%11.30 1.9–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.32
Tunisia Libya 174%1.26X19%5.0027%11.70 2.1–0.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.28

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.

Who will win Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

On our numbers Mozambique have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ethiopia 13%.

How many goals will there be in Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

Our predicted score is Mozambique 2–0 Ethiopia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

Mozambique vs Ethiopia (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.