Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultBurnley to win ✗58% · @1.75
Double chanceBurnley or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.08
Burnley vs Derby: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 19 September the Championship brings Burnley against Derby at Turf Moor. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Burnley are 22nd, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 15 matches; Derby are 23rd (in the drop zone) with 10. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Burnley, last 5: LDLDL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Swansea, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Derby, last 5: LLLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Birmingham, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Burnley 2.0 xG, Derby 1.1 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 59% for three or more goals, 60% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Burnley 58%, draw 22%, Derby 20%.
Lower-risk option: Burnley or draw (80%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Burnley or draw (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Burnley 1–1 Derby. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Burnley58%fair 1.73 · @1.75
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.60
Derby20%fair 5.06 · @4.20
3.07Expected goals
1.99Burnley xG
1.08Derby xG
60%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–09%
2–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Burnley 2.0 – 1.1 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Burnley to win✗
58%
1.73
1.75
Double chance
Burnley or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.70
Draw no bet
Burnley (draw no bet)
75%
1.34
–
Asian handicap
Derby +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
–
First team to score
Burnley to score first✓
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Burnley ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Burnley / FT Burnley✗
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.08
–
Recent results
Burnley – last 6
LDLDLD
12 Sep
@ Swansea
1–3
L
8 Sep
@ Wrexham
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Bristol City
1–2
L
2 Sep
vs Middlesbrough
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Norwich
1–4
L
26 Aug
@ Bradford
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Derby – last 6
LLLWLD
12 Sep
vs Birmingham
1–2
L
9 Sep
vs West Brom
0–1
L
5 Sep
@ West Ham
0–3
L
1 Sep
@ Portsmouth
2–0
W
29 Aug
vs Swansea
0–3
L
22 Aug
vs Cardiff
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burnley and Derby.
Our pick is Burnley or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Burnley vs Derby?
On our numbers Burnley have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Derby 20%.
How many goals will there be in Burnley vs Derby?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Derby?
Our predicted score is Burnley 1–1 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Burnley vs Derby?
Burnley vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Turf Moor.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
