Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Cardiff to win @ 1.75 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCardiff to win ✓62% · @1.75
Double chanceCardiff or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.58
Cardiff vs Charlton: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Charlton travel to face Cardiff on Saturday 19 September in the Championship, with Cardiff City Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 12:30 WAT. In the table, Cardiff are 14th, lower half, on 18 points after 15 matches; Charlton are 19th (lower half) with 17. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Cardiff, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Bolton, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Charlton, last 5: DDLDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Portsmouth, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Charlton, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.3 for Cardiff.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cardiff 1.6 xG, Charlton 0.6 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 38%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cardiff 62%, draw 22%, Charlton 16%.
Lower-risk option: Cardiff or draw (84%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Cardiff to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Cardiff or draw (84%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cardiff 1–0 Charlton. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cardiff62%fair 1.63 · @1.75
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.80
Charlton16%fair 6.22 · @3.90
2.21Expected goals
1.58Cardiff xG
0.63Charlton xG
52%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–014%
0–011%
1–111%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Cardiff 1.6 – 0.6 Charlton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cardiff to win✓
62%
1.63
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Cardiff or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.62
Draw no bet
Cardiff (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Cardiff -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Cardiff to score first
63%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cardiff / FT Cardiff✓
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.58
–
Recent results
Cardiff – last 6
LDLLDL
12 Sep
@ Bolton
0–1
L
8 Sep
vs Stoke City
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Portsmouth
0–2
L
2 Sep
@ QPR
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Sheffield Utd
2–2
D
25 Aug
vs Norwich
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Charlton – last 6
DDLDWL
12 Sep
vs Portsmouth
0–0
D
9 Sep
vs QPR
0–0
D
5 Sep
@ Stoke City
0–4
L
2 Sep
@ West Brom
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Preston
1–0
W
26 Aug
@ Tottenham
1–5
L
0.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cardiff and Charlton.
Our pick is Cardiff or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cardiff vs Charlton?
On our numbers Cardiff have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Charlton 16%.
How many goals will there be in Cardiff vs Charlton?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cardiff vs Charlton?
Our predicted score is Cardiff 1–0 Charlton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Cardiff vs Charlton?
Cardiff vs Charlton (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Cardiff City Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
