Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
Picks by market
ResultBurnley to win ✓43% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.50
Watford vs Burnley: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 10 October the Championship brings Watford against Burnley at Vicarage Road. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Watford are 20th, lower half, on 15 points after 15 matches; Burnley are 22nd (in the drop zone) with 10.
Current form
Watford, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Bristol City, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Burnley, last 5: DLDLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Derby, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Watford 1.3 xG, Burnley 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Watford 36%, draw 22%, Burnley 43%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (62%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.62, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Watford 1–1 Burnley. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Watford36%fair 2.81 · @2.80
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.30
Burnley43%fair 2.35 · @2.30
2.69Expected goals
1.27Watford xG
1.42Burnley xG
62%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–09%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Watford 1.3 – 1.4 Burnley expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Burnley to win✓
43%
2.35
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.67
Draw no bet
Burnley (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Watford +1 (Asian handicap)✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.98
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Burnley to score first✓
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Burnley / FT Burnley✓
24%
4.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.50
–
Recent results
Watford – last 6
LLWLLD
18 Sep
@ Bristol City
0–1
L
12 Sep
vs Stoke City
1–2
L
8 Sep
vs Preston
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ West Brom
0–1
L
1 Sep
@ Swansea
0–2
L
29 Aug
vs West Ham
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Burnley – last 6
DLDLDL
19 Sep
vs Derby
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Swansea
1–3
L
8 Sep
@ Wrexham
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Bristol City
1–2
L
2 Sep
vs Middlesbrough
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Norwich
1–4
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Watford and Burnley.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Watford vs Burnley?
On our numbers Watford have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Burnley 43%.
How many goals will there be in Watford vs Burnley?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Watford vs Burnley?
Our predicted score is Watford 1–1 Burnley, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Watford vs Burnley?
Watford vs Burnley (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Vicarage Road.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
