Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.28Odds
1
Value bet: Birmingham to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBirmingham to win ✓60% · @1.95
Double chanceBirmingham or draw ✓84% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.06
Birmingham vs Millwall: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 3 November the Championship brings Birmingham against Millwall at St. Andrew's Stadium. Kick-off: 21:00 WAT. In the table, Birmingham are 1st, leading the league, on 29 points after 15 matches; Millwall are 16th (lower half) with 18.
Current form
Birmingham, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Lincoln, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Millwall, last 5: WLDLW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Derby, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Birmingham, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Millwall.
Head to head
When they last met (25 Feb 2026) it ended Millwall 3–0 Birmingham.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Birmingham 2.0 xG, Millwall 1.0 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 54% and GG at 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Birmingham 60%, draw 24%, Millwall 16%.
Lower-risk option: Birmingham or draw (84%) at 1.28.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Birmingham to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Birmingham or draw (84%, odds 1.28 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Birmingham 1–0 Millwall. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Birmingham60%fair 1.67 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.60
Millwall16%fair 6.30 · @3.70
2.93Expected goals
1.98Birmingham xG
0.95Millwall xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
2–010%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Birmingham 2.0 – 1.0 Millwall expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Birmingham vs Millwall?
Our pick is Birmingham or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Birmingham vs Millwall?
On our numbers Birmingham have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Millwall 16%.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham vs Millwall?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs Millwall?
Our predicted score is Birmingham 1–0 Millwall, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Birmingham vs Millwall?
Birmingham vs Millwall (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at St. Andrew's Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
