Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.28Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.80 – our chance 66% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCrewe to win ✓48% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓20% · fair 5.06
Crewe vs Northampton: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Northampton travel to face Crewe on Saturday 22 August in the League Two, with Alexandra Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Crewe are 4th, among the top four, on 22 points after 14 matches; Northampton are 21st (lower half) with 14.
Current form
Crewe, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Crawley Town, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Northampton, last 5: LDLWD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Brighton U21, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Crewe, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Northampton.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Crewe 0.9 xG, Northampton 0.6 xG – a total near 1.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Crewe 48%, draw 22%, Northampton 31%.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 66%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (83%, odds 1.28 – longer than our fair 1.20, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Crewe 0–0 Northampton. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Crewe48%fair 2.09 · @2.18
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @3.45
Northampton31%fair 3.27 · @3.10
1.53Expected goals
0.92Crewe xG
0.62Northampton xG
48%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–022%
1–020%
0–113%
1–112%
2–09%
2–16%
From our goals model: Crewe 0.9 – 0.6 Northampton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Crewe to win✓
48%
2.09
2.18
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.91
Draw no bet
Crewe (draw no bet)✓
61%
1.64
–
Asian handicap
Northampton +1 (Asian handicap)
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.80 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.28 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
1.09
First team to score
Crewe to score first✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
57%
1.77
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
28%
3.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
20%
5.06
–
Recent results
Crewe – last 6
WWDLWD
15 Aug
@ Crawley Town
1–0
W
8 Aug
vs Accrington ST
2–1
W
1 Aug
@ Chester
0–0
D
25 Jul
vs Birmingham
1–2
L
21 Jul
@ AFC Telford United
3–0
W
18 Jul
vs Stoke City
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Northampton – last 6
LDLWDW
18 Aug
vs Brighton U21
0–3
L
15 Aug
vs Swindon Town
0–0
D
8 Aug
@ Leicester
0–1
L
1 Aug
@ Solihull Moors
4–2
W
28 Jul
@ Cambridge United
0–0
D
22 Jul
@ Southend
3–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Crewe and Northampton.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Crewe vs Northampton?
On our numbers Crewe have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Northampton 31%.
How many goals will there be in Crewe vs Northampton?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Crewe vs Northampton?
Our predicted score is Crewe 0–0 Northampton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Crewe vs Northampton?
Crewe vs Northampton (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Alexandra Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
