Newport County 14%Draw 22%Grimsby 64%Expected goals 0.78 – 1.94
86%
Betarazi pick
Grimsby or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Grimsby to win @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultGrimsby to win ✗64% · @1.80
Double chanceGrimsby or draw ✗86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.34
Newport County vs Grimsby: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Grimsby travel to face Newport County on Saturday 26 September in the League Two, with Rodney Parade the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Newport County are 14th, lower half, on 18 points after 14 matches; Grimsby are 6th (upper half) with 20. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Newport County, last 5: WDDLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Swindon Town, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Grimsby, last 5: LWWDD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Notts County, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Grimsby, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Newport County.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Newport County 0.8 xG, Grimsby 1.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Newport County 14%, draw 22%, Grimsby 64%.
Lower-risk option: Grimsby or draw (86%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Grimsby to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Grimsby or draw (86%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Newport County 0–1 Grimsby. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Newport County14%fair 7.22 · @4.20
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.60
Grimsby64%fair 1.56 · @1.80
2.72Expected goals
0.78Newport County xG
1.94Grimsby xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Newport County 0.8 – 1.9 Grimsby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Grimsby to win✗
64%
1.56
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Grimsby or draw✗
86%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.73
Draw no bet
Grimsby (draw no bet)✗
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Grimsby -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.12
First team to score
Grimsby to score first
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Grimsby ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Grimsby / FT Grimsby✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.34
–
Recent results
Newport County – last 6
WDDLLD
22 Sep
@ Swindon Town
2–0
W
19 Sep
@ Accrington ST
0–0
D
12 Sep
vs Fleetwood Town
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Northampton
0–1
L
1 Sep
@ Salford City
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Tranmere
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Grimsby – last 6
LWWDDD
22 Sep
@ Notts County
1–2
L
19 Sep
vs Crawley Town
2–0
W
12 Sep
vs Bristol Rovers
2–0
W
5 Sep
@ Cheltenham
2–2
D
1 Sep
@ Accrington ST
2–2
D
29 Aug
vs Fleetwood Town
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newport County and Grimsby.
What is the prediction for Newport County vs Grimsby?
Our pick is Grimsby or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Newport County vs Grimsby?
On our numbers Newport County have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Grimsby 64%.
How many goals will there be in Newport County vs Grimsby?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newport County vs Grimsby?
Our predicted score is Newport County 0–1 Grimsby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Newport County vs Grimsby?
Newport County vs Grimsby (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Rodney Parade.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
