Value bet: Accrington ST to win @ 3.20 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSwindon Town to win ✗44% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.19
Swindon Town vs Accrington ST: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Saturday 26 September: Swindon Town v Accrington ST in the League Two, played at County Ground. In the table, Swindon Town are 13th, lower half, on 19 points after 14 matches; Accrington ST are 9th (upper half) with 19. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Swindon Town, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Newport County, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Accrington ST, last 5: DDLWD Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Sunderland U21, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Swindon Town 1.5 xG, Accrington ST 1.3 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Swindon Town 44%, draw 22%, Accrington ST 35%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Accrington ST to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Swindon Town 1–1 Accrington ST. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Swindon Town44%fair 2.29 · @2.15
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.40
Accrington ST35%fair 2.89 · @3.20
2.89Expected goals
1.55Swindon Town xG
1.34Accrington ST xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Swindon Town 1.5 – 1.3 Accrington ST expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Swindon Town to win✗
44%
2.29
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.62
Draw no bet
Swindon Town (draw no bet)
56%
1.79
–
Asian handicap
Accrington ST +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.14
First team to score
Swindon Town to score first
51%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Swindon Town / FT Swindon Town✗
25%
3.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.19
–
Recent results
Swindon Town – last 6
LLLLWW
22 Sep
vs Newport County
0–2
L
19 Sep
@ Salford City
0–1
L
15 Sep
vs Crystal Palace U21
1–2
L
12 Sep
@ York
0–4
L
5 Sep
vs Colchester
3–1
W
1 Sep
vs Port Vale
3–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Accrington ST – last 6
DDLWDL
22 Sep
vs Sunderland U21
3–3
D
19 Sep
vs Newport County
0–0
D
12 Sep
@ Barnet
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs Crawley Town
3–2
W
1 Sep
vs Grimsby
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Walsall
2–3
L
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Swindon Town and Accrington ST.
What is the prediction for Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
On our numbers Swindon Town have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Accrington ST 35%.
How many goals will there be in Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Our predicted score is Swindon Town 1–1 Accrington ST, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Swindon Town vs Accrington ST (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at County Ground.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
