York 65%Draw 23%Gillingham 13%Expected goals 2.12 – 0.86
65%
Betarazi pick
York to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Picks by market
ResultYork to win ✓65% · @1.53
Double chanceYork or draw ✓87% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.19
York vs Gillingham: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Gillingham travel to face York on Saturday 26 September in the League Two, with York`s LNER Community Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, York are 7th, upper half, on 20 points after 14 matches; Gillingham are 8th (upper half) with 20. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
York, last 5: DLLWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Rotherham, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Gillingham, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Cambridge United, at home. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Gillingham, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for York.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give York 2.1 xG, Gillingham 0.9 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 59% for three or more goals, 57% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – York 65%, draw 23%, Gillingham 13%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was York to win (65%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: York 2–0 Gillingham. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
York65%fair 1.54 · @1.53
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @4.20
Gillingham13%fair 7.95 · @5.50
2.98Expected goals
2.12York xG
0.86Gillingham xG
57%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: York 2.1 – 0.9 Gillingham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
York to win✓
65%
1.54
1.53
Double chance
York or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
1.67
Draw no bet
York (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
York -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.53
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.20
First team to score
York to score first✓
68%
1.48
–
Half-time result
York ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT York / FT York✓
43%
2.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.19
–
Recent results
York – last 6
DLLWDL
22 Sep
vs Rotherham
1–1
D
19 Sep
@ Chesterfield
0–2
L
15 Sep
vs Newcastle United U21
1–3
L
12 Sep
vs Swindon Town
4–0
W
5 Sep
@ Crewe
1–1
D
1 Sep
@ Cheltenham
2–3
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Gillingham – last 6
LWWWDD
22 Sep
vs Cambridge United
1–4
L
19 Sep
vs Bristol Rovers
3–0
W
12 Sep
vs Tranmere
2–0
W
5 Sep
@ Rochdale
4–1
W
1 Sep
@ Chesterfield
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Northampton
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between York and Gillingham.
Our pick is York to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win York vs Gillingham?
On our numbers York have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gillingham 13%.
How many goals will there be in York vs Gillingham?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for York vs Gillingham?
Our predicted score is York 2–0 Gillingham, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is York vs Gillingham?
York vs Gillingham (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at York`s LNER Community Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
