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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Capital Brasilia v Nacional AM: numbers & prediction

Serie D · Brazil

Capital Brasilia

LWDWW
1–0
FTPens 5–6

Nacional AM

WDWWD
Capital Brasilia 50%Draw 28%Nacional AM 22% Expected goals 1.30 – 0.89
63%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗

6/10Rating
1.50Odds

Picks by market

ResultCapital Brasilia to win ✓50% · @1.62
Double chanceCapital Brasilia or draw ✓78% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.88

Capital Brasilia vs Nacional AM: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Nacional AM travel to face Capital Brasilia on Sunday 12 July in the Serie D – the ball rolls at 21:00 WAT.

Current form

Capital Brasilia, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Nacional AM, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.

Nacional AM, last 5: WDWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Capital Brasilia, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Head to head

When they last met (4 Jul 2026) it ended Nacional AM 1–0 Capital Brasilia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Capital Brasilia 1.3 xG, Nacional AM 0.9 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Capital Brasilia 50%, draw 28%, Nacional AM 22%.
  • GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.50.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (63%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Capital Brasilia 1–1 Nacional AM. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Capital Brasilia50%fair 1.99 · @1.62
Draw28%fair 3.62 · @3.25
Nacional AM22%fair 4.53 · @5.00
2.19Expected goals
1.30Capital Brasilia xG
0.89Nacional AM xG
47%Both score
37%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%

From our goals model: Capital Brasilia 1.3 – 0.9 Nacional AM expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultCapital Brasilia to win ✓50%1.991.62
Double chanceCapital Brasilia or draw ✓78%1.281.11
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓53%1.901.50
Draw no betCapital Brasilia (draw no bet) ✓70%1.44–
Asian handicapNacional AM +1 (Asian handicap)72%1.39–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗63%1.581.50
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓63%1.601.50
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81%1.241.17
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓91%1.101.05
First team to scoreCapital Brasilia to score first ✓53%1.90–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗47%2.12–
Half-time / full-timeHT Capital Brasilia / FT Capital Brasilia ✓27%3.75–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15%6.88–

Recent results

Capital Brasilia – last 6

LWDWWD
4 Jul@ Nacional AM0–1L
27 Junvs Aparecidense4–0W
20 Jun@ Aparecidense1–1D
7 Junvs União Rondonópolis2–0W
30 May@ CEOV Operário5–1W
29 Aprvs Operario Ferroviario2–2D
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Nacional AM – last 6

WDWWDL
4 Julvs Capital Brasilia1–0W
28 Junvs Araguaína0–0D
21 Jun@ Araguaína1–0W
14 Junvs Monte Roraima3–1W
31 May@ Manaus FC1–1D
29 Mayvs Paysandu2–4L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

4 Jul 2026Nacional AM v Capital Brasilia1–0
Capital Brasilia vs Nacional AM head-to-head page →

More Serie D predictions

FT São Luiz2 Velo Clube1 Pens 5–3 144%2.10X28%2.70228%3.60 1.3–1.0xG 1XSão Luiz or draw 72%@1.25 ✓
FT ABC3 Águia de Marabá0 159%1.48X24%3.60217%6.25 1.8–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.33 ✓
FT Gama2 Porto Velho0 Pens 5–4 164%1.27X22%4.50214%10.00 1.9–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.20 ✓
FT Iguatu2 Maguary PE1 152%1.95X26%3.00222%3.80 1.5–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓
FT Manauara1 Goiatuba EC2 Pens 3–4 149%1.85X29%2.90222%4.33 1.2–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 82%@1.20 ✓
FT Portuguesa RJ0 Sao Jose0 139%2.20X31%2.60230%3.50 1.1–0.9xG 1XPortuguesa RJ or draw 70%@1.25 ✓
FT Uberlandia2 Serra Branca2 151%1.95X28%3.10221%3.60 1.4–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 80%@1.22 ✗
FT Ferroviario3 Imperatriz0 155%1.53X26%3.25219%6.00 1.5–0.8xG 1Ferroviario to win 55%@1.53 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Capital Brasilia vs Nacional AM?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.

Who will win Capital Brasilia vs Nacional AM?

On our numbers Capital Brasilia have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Nacional AM 22%.

How many goals will there be in Capital Brasilia vs Nacional AM?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Capital Brasilia vs Nacional AM?

Our predicted score is Capital Brasilia 1–1 Nacional AM, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Capital Brasilia vs Nacional AM?

Capital Brasilia vs Nacional AM (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.