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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

São Luiz v Velo Clube: numbers & prediction

Serie D · Brazil

São Luiz

LDDWD
2–1
FTPens 5–3

Velo Clube

WDDWL
São Luiz 44%Draw 28%Velo Clube 28% Expected goals 1.35 – 1.00
72%
Betarazi pick

São Luiz or draw

Strong pick · fair odds 1.38 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.25Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 54% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultSão Luiz to win ✓44% · @2.10
Double chanceSão Luiz or draw ✓72% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.51

São Luiz vs Velo Clube: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

19:30 WAT, Sunday 12 July: São Luiz v Velo Clube in the Serie D.

Current form

São Luiz, last 5: LDDWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Velo Clube, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Velo Clube, last 5: WDDWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over São Luiz, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (4 Jul 2026) it ended Velo Clube 2–1 São Luiz.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give São Luiz 1.3 xG, Velo Clube 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 54%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – São Luiz 44%, draw 28%, Velo Clube 28%.
  • Lower-risk option: São Luiz or draw (72%) at 1.25.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.05.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 54%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was São Luiz or draw (72%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: São Luiz 1–0 Velo Clube. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

São Luiz44%fair 2.29 · @2.10
Draw28%fair 3.51 · @2.70
Velo Clube28%fair 3.60 · @3.60
2.35Expected goals
1.35São Luiz xG
1.00Velo Clube xG
54%Both score
42%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%
1–113%
0–010%
0–110%
2–09%
2–19%

From our goals model: São Luiz 1.3 – 1.0 Velo Clube expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSão Luiz to win ✓44%2.292.10
Double chanceSão Luiz or draw ✓72%1.381.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓54%1.862.05 ▲
Draw no betSão Luiz (draw no bet) ✓61%1.63–
Asian handicapVelo Clube +1 (Asian handicap)72%1.38–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓68%1.47–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗58%1.71–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79%1.27–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓91%1.10–
First team to scoreSão Luiz to score first ✓52%1.92–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗46%2.20–
Half-time / full-timeHT São Luiz / FT São Luiz ✓26%3.82–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9%11.51–

Recent results

São Luiz – last 6

LDDWDD
4 Jul@ Velo Clube1–2L
27 Jun@ Blumenau1–1D
20 Junvs Blumenau1–1D
7 Junvs Joinville3–1W
31 May@ Cascavel0–0D
7 Mar@ Novo Hamburgo1–1D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Velo Clube – last 6

WDDWLD
4 Julvs São Luiz2–1W
27 Jun@ Água Santa1–1D
20 Junvs Água Santa0–0D
7 Junvs CFRJ Maricá3–1W
30 May@ Sampaio Corrêa RJ0–1L
23 Mayvs XV de Piracicaba1–1D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

4 Jul 2026Velo Clube v São Luiz2–1
São Luiz vs Velo Clube head-to-head page →

More Serie D predictions

FT ABC3 Águia de Marabá0 159%1.48X24%3.60217%6.25 1.8–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.33 ✓
FT Gama2 Porto Velho0 Pens 5–4 164%1.27X22%4.50214%10.00 1.9–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.20 ✓
FT Iguatu2 Maguary PE1 152%1.95X26%3.00222%3.80 1.5–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓
FT Manauara1 Goiatuba EC2 Pens 3–4 149%1.85X29%2.90222%4.33 1.2–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 82%@1.20 ✓
FT Portuguesa RJ0 Sao Jose0 139%2.20X31%2.60230%3.50 1.1–0.9xG 1XPortuguesa RJ or draw 70%@1.25 ✓
FT Uberlandia2 Serra Branca2 151%1.95X28%3.10221%3.60 1.4–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 80%@1.22 ✗
FT Capital Brasilia1 Nacional AM0 Pens 5–6 150%1.62X28%3.25222%5.00 1.3–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 63%@1.50 ✗
FT Ferroviario3 Imperatriz0 155%1.53X26%3.25219%6.00 1.5–0.8xG 1Ferroviario to win 55%@1.53 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for São Luiz vs Velo Clube?

Our pick is São Luiz or draw with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win São Luiz vs Velo Clube?

On our numbers São Luiz have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Velo Clube 28%.

How many goals will there be in São Luiz vs Velo Clube?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for São Luiz vs Velo Clube?

Our predicted score is São Luiz 1–0 Velo Clube, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is São Luiz vs Velo Clube?

São Luiz vs Velo Clube (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.