Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
Picks by market
ResultLorca Deportiva to win ✓61% · @1.70
Double chanceLorca Deportiva or draw ✓86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓24% · fair 4.18
Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Castellonense travel to face Lorca Deportiva on Sunday 27 September in the Segunda División RFEF Group 3 – the ball rolls at 18:00 WAT. In the table, Lorca Deportiva are 8th, upper half, on 13 points after 10 matches; Castellonense are 4th (among the top four) with 16. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Lorca Deportiva, last 5: DLDLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Intercity, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Castellonense, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Cieza, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Castellonense, collecting 2.7 points per game to 0.5 for Lorca Deportiva.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lorca Deportiva 1.3 xG, Castellonense 0.4 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 77% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lorca Deportiva 61%, draw 25%, Castellonense 14%.
Lower-risk option: Lorca Deportiva or draw (86%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: NG (57%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Lorca Deportiva to win (61%, odds 1.70 – longer than our fair 1.64, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lorca Deportiva 1–0 Castellonense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lorca Deportiva61%fair 1.64 · @1.70
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.10
Castellonense14%fair 7.21 · @4.80
1.67Expected goals
1.27Lorca Deportiva xG
0.40Castellonense xG
43%Both score
23%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–024%
0–019%
2–015%
1–110%
0–18%
3–06%
From our goals model: Lorca Deportiva 1.3 – 0.4 Castellonense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lorca Deportiva to win✓
61%
1.64
1.70
Double chance
Lorca Deportiva or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.70
Draw no bet
Lorca Deportiva (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Castellonense +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
First team to score
Lorca Deportiva to score first✓
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lorca Deportiva / FT Lorca Deportiva✗
35%
2.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
24%
4.18
–
Recent results
Lorca Deportiva – last 6
DLDLLD
20 Sep
vs Intercity
0–0
D
13 Sep
@ Orihuela
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Elche II
1–1
D
15 Aug
@ Águilas
0–1
L
3 May
@ Deportiva Minera
0–1
L
26 Apr
vs Yeclano
2–2
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Castellonense – last 6
WWWDWW
19 Sep
vs Cieza
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Poblense
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs Ucam Murcia
2–1
W
26 Apr
vs Saguntino
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ Crevillente
1–0
W
22 Mar
vs Soneja
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lorca Deportiva and Castellonense.
What is the prediction for Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense?
Our pick is Lorca Deportiva to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense?
On our numbers Lorca Deportiva have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Castellonense 14%.
How many goals will there be in Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 23% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense?
Our predicted score is Lorca Deportiva 1–0 Castellonense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense?
Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
