Benfica vs Celtic: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Benfica welcome Celtic to Estádio da Luz for a UEFA Europa League fixture on Thursday 15 October (20:00 WAT). In the table, Benfica are 1st, leading the league, on 12 points after 4 matches; Celtic are 32nd (lower half) with 3.
Current form
Benfica, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Vitória SC, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Celtic, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Motherwell, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Benfica, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.5 for Celtic.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Benfica 2.9 xG, Celtic 1.0 xG – a total near 3.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 74% and GG at 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Benfica 75%, draw 15%, Celtic 10%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Benfica to win (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Benfica 2–1 Celtic. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Benfica75%fair 1.33 · @1.25
Draw15%fair 6.54 · @6.00
Celtic10%fair 10.29 · @10.00
3.88Expected goals
2.87Benfica xG
1.01Celtic xG
50%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
3–08%
1–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Benfica 2.9 – 1.0 Celtic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Double chance
Benfica or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.85
Draw no bet
Benfica (draw no bet)✓
89%
1.13
–
Asian handicap
Benfica -1 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
–
First team to score
Benfica to score first✓
73%
1.38
–
Half-time result
Benfica ahead at half-time✓
57%
1.75
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica✓
53%
1.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.65
–
Recent results
Benfica – last 6
WLWWWW
11 Oct
vs Vitória SC
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ FC Porto
1–3
L
16 Sep
@ AC Milan
2–0
W
13 Sep
vs GIL Vicente
3–1
W
9 Sep
@ Moreirense
4–0
W
5 Sep
@ Maritimo
3–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Celtic – last 6
WLLLWW
11 Oct
@ Motherwell
2–0
W
20 Sep
vs Rangers
0–1
L
17 Sep
vs Ferencvarosi TC
1–3
L
13 Sep
@ Rangers
0–3
L
9 Sep
@ ST Johnstone
1–0
W
5 Sep
@ ST Mirren
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benfica and Celtic.
Our pick is Benfica to win with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Benfica vs Celtic?
On our numbers Benfica have a 75% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Celtic 10%.
How many goals will there be in Benfica vs Celtic?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Celtic?
Our predicted score is Benfica 2–1 Celtic, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Benfica vs Celtic?
Benfica vs Celtic (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Luz.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
