Union St. Gilloise 47%Draw 22%Real Sociedad 31%Expected goals 1.68 – 1.32
63%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
1
Value bet: Union St. Gilloise to win @ 2.45 – our chance 47% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultUnion St. Gilloise to win ✗47% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.77
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 15 October the UEFA Europa League brings Union St. Gilloise against Real Sociedad at Den Dreef Stadium. Kick-off: 17:45 WAT. In the table, Union St. Gilloise are 4th, among the top four, on 10 points after 4 matches; Real Sociedad are 20th (lower half) with 5.
Current form
Union St. Gilloise, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with OH Leuven, at home. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Real Sociedad, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Deportivo La Coruna, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Union St. Gilloise, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.7 for Real Sociedad.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Union St. Gilloise 1.7 xG, Real Sociedad 1.3 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 63% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Union St. Gilloise 47%, draw 22%, Real Sociedad 31%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Union St. Gilloise to win @2.45 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 47%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (63%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Real Sociedad. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Union St. Gilloise47%fair 2.12 · @2.45
Draw22%fair 4.64 · @3.40
Real Sociedad31%fair 3.20 · @2.62
3.00Expected goals
1.68Union St. Gilloise xG
1.32Real Sociedad xG
63%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–27%
2–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Union St. Gilloise 1.7 – 1.3 Real Sociedad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Union St. Gilloise to win✗
47%
2.12
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.27
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.55
Draw no bet
Union St. Gilloise (draw no bet)
60%
1.66
–
Asian handicap
Real Sociedad +1 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
Union St. Gilloise to score first
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.53
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Union St. Gilloise / FT Union St. Gilloise✗
28%
3.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.77
–
Recent results
Union St. Gilloise – last 6
DWWWWW
11 Oct
vs OH Leuven
1–1
D
20 Sep
@ Antwerp
2–0
W
17 Sep
@ Plzen
3–0
W
12 Sep
vs Lommel United
5–0
W
5 Sep
@ Charleroi
3–2
W
2 Sep
@ St. Truiden
3–0
W
2.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Real Sociedad – last 6
WWLLWD
11 Oct
vs Deportivo La Coruna
3–2
W
20 Sep
@ Valencia
3–2
W
17 Sep
vs Bournemouth
1–2
L
13 Sep
vs Atletico Madrid
0–3
L
7 Sep
@ Elche
3–2
W
3 Sep
vs Celta Vigo
0–0
D
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad.
What is the prediction for Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
On our numbers Union St. Gilloise have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Real Sociedad 31%.
How many goals will there be in Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
Our predicted score is Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Real Sociedad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Den Dreef Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
