Lech Poznan 13%Draw 23%Bayer Leverkusen 64%Expected goals 1.23 – 2.60
87%
Betarazi pick
Bayer Leverkusen or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultBayer Leverkusen to win ✓64% · @1.65
Double chanceBayer Leverkusen or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗66% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.08
Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 15 October the UEFA Europa League brings Lech Poznan against Bayer Leverkusen at Stadion Miejski. Kick-off: 17:45 WAT. In the table, Lech Poznan are 35th, in the drop zone, on 1 points after 4 matches; Bayer Leverkusen are 7th (upper half) with 9.
Current form
Lech Poznan, last 5: WDWLL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Slask Wroclaw, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Bayer Leverkusen, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 4–3 win over FSV Mainz 05, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.7 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lech Poznan 1.2 xG, Bayer Leverkusen 2.6 xG – a total near 3.8. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 74% and GG at 66%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lech Poznan 13%, draw 23%, Bayer Leverkusen 64%.
Lower-risk option: Bayer Leverkusen or draw (87%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (66%) at 1.44.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Bayer Leverkusen or draw (87%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.15, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lech Poznan 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lech Poznan13%fair 7.47 · @4.40
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @4.20
Bayer Leverkusen64%fair 1.56 · @1.65
3.83Expected goals
1.23Lech Poznan xG
2.60Bayer Leverkusen xG
66%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–29%
1–38%
0–27%
1–17%
0–36%
0–16%
From our goals model: Lech Poznan 1.2 – 2.6 Bayer Leverkusen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bayer Leverkusen to win✓
64%
1.56
1.65 ▲
Double chance
Bayer Leverkusen or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
66%
1.52
1.44
Draw no bet
Bayer Leverkusen (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Bayer Leverkusen -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.12
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
First team to score
Bayer Leverkusen to score first✓
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Bayer Leverkusen ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bayer Leverkusen / FT Bayer Leverkusen✓
45%
2.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.08
–
Recent results
Lech Poznan – last 6
WDWLLW
10 Oct
@ Slask Wroclaw
4–1
W
3 Oct
vs Energie Cottbus
2–2
D
20 Sep
vs Radomiak Radom
5–1
W
17 Sep
@ Crystal Palace
0–4
L
12 Sep
@ Gornik Zabrze
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Raków Częstochowa
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Bayer Leverkusen – last 6
WWWDWL
10 Oct
@ FSV Mainz 05
4–3
W
20 Sep
vs RB Leipzig
2–0
W
16 Sep
vs Celje
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ FC Augsburg
2–2
D
5 Sep
vs Union Berlin
4–0
W
29 Aug
@ SV Elversberg
2–3
L
2.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lech Poznan and Bayer Leverkusen.
What is the prediction for Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our pick is Bayer Leverkusen or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
On our numbers Lech Poznan have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bayer Leverkusen 64%.
How many goals will there be in Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our predicted score is Lech Poznan 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
