Bournemouth v Sturm Graz Prediction & Expected Goals (15 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultBournemouth to win ✓69% · @1.20

Double chanceBournemouth or draw ✓89% · @1.05

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓64% · @1.91

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗28% · fair 3.53

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Sturm Graz travel to face Bournemouth on Thursday 15 October in the UEFA Europa League, with Vitality Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Bournemouth are 2nd, among the top four, on 12 points after 4 matches; Sturm Graz are 24th (lower half) with 4.

Current form

Bournemouth, last 5: LLWDW Their latest outing: 1–5 defeat to Chelsea, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Sturm Graz, last 5: WWLDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Austria Vienna, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Sturm Graz, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Bournemouth.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Bournemouth 1.3 xG, Sturm Graz 0.2 xG – a total near 1.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 81% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Bournemouth 69%, draw 20%, Sturm Graz 11%.
GG/NG: NG (64%) at 1.91.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (64%, odds 1.91 – longer than our fair 1.56, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bournemouth 1–0 Sturm Graz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Bournemouth69%fair 1.45 · @1.20

Draw20%fair 5.10 · @6.50

Sturm Graz11%fair 8.70 · @11.00

1.50Expected goals

1.27Bournemouth xG

0.23Sturm Graz xG

36%Both score

19%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–028%

0–022%

2–018%

3–08%

1–17%

0–15%

From our goals model: Bournemouth 1.3 – 0.2 Sturm Graz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Bournemouth to win ✓	69%	1.45	1.20
Double chance	Bournemouth or draw ✓	89%	1.13	1.05
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	64%	1.56	1.91 ▲
Draw no bet	Bournemouth (draw no bet) ✓	86%	1.17	–
Asian handicap	Bournemouth -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	64%	1.56	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Under 1.5 goals ✗	56%	1.79	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	81%	1.24	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	93%	1.07	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	98%	1.02	–
First team to score	Bournemouth to score first ✓	66%	1.52	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	55%	1.83	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Bournemouth / FT Bournemouth ✓	38%	2.65	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	28%	3.53	–

Bournemouth – last 6

LLWDWD

10 Oct	@ Chelsea	1–5	L
20 Sep	vs Liverpool	0–1	L
17 Sep	@ Real Sociedad	2–1	W
12 Sep	vs Brentford	2–2	D
8 Sep	vs Lincoln	4–0	W
5 Sep	@ Newcastle	2–2	D

1.8Scored / game

1.8Conceded / game

67%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Sturm Graz – last 6

WWLDWW

10 Oct	@ Austria Vienna	2–0	W
2 Oct	vs Floridsdorfer AC	3–1	W
20 Sep	@ Red Bull Salzburg	0–3	L
16 Sep	vs Rennes	0–0	D
13 Sep	vs Lask Linz	2–1	W
5 Sep	@ Voitsberg	4–1	W

1.8Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Bournemouth	4	4	0	0	+9	12
3	Ferencvarosi TC	4	4	0	0	+8	12
4	Union St. Gilloise	4	3	1	0	+8	10
5	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+7	10
6	Olympiakos Piraeus	4	3	1	0	+3	10
7	Bayer Leverkusen	4	3	0	1	+7	9
8	Beşiktaş	4	2	1	1	+3	7
9	Dinamo Zagreb	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Levski Sofia	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	Sunderland	4	2	1	1	0	7
12	NEC Nijmegen	4	2	1	1	-1	7
13	Lyon	4	2	1	1	-1	7
14	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	0	2	+3	6
15	Anderlecht	4	2	0	2	+3	6
16	OFI	4	2	0	2	+1	6
17	Rennes	4	1	3	0	+1	6
18	Omonia Nicosia	4	2	0	2	-1	6
19	Torreense	4	2	0	2	-2	6
20	Real Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+5	5
21	Crystal Palace	4	1	2	1	+3	5
22	Sparta Praha	4	1	1	2	0	4
23	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	0	4
24	Sturm Graz	4	1	1	2	-3	4
25	Celje	4	1	1	2	-4	4
26	Red Bull Salzburg	4	1	1	2	-5	4
27	Celta Vigo	4	1	0	3	-2	3
28	AC Milan	4	1	0	3	-3	3
29	Jagiellonia	4	1	0	3	-3	3
30	Plzen	4	1	0	3	-4	3
31	Marseille	4	1	0	3	-4	3
32	Celtic	4	1	0	3	-5	3
33	Hapoel Beer Sheva	4	0	1	3	-7	1
34	Lillestrom	4	0	1	3	-8	1
35	Lech Poznan	4	0	1	3	-10	1
36	Ararat-Armenia	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Team

Pts

+10

-1

-1

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-2

-3

-3

-4

-4

-5

-7

-8

-10

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?

Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.

Who will win Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?

On our numbers Bournemouth have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sturm Graz 11%.

How many goals will there be in Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?

We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 36% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?

Our predicted score is Bournemouth 1–0 Sturm Graz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.

When is Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Vitality Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Bournemouth v Sturm Graz: numbers & prediction