Jagiellonia v Ararat-Armenia Prediction & Expected Goals (15 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultJagiellonia to win ✓70% · @1.40

Double chanceJagiellonia or draw ✓90% · @1.10

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.85

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.59

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Ararat-Armenia travel to face Jagiellonia on Thursday 15 October in the UEFA Europa League, with Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Jagiellonia are 29th, lower half, on 3 points after 4 matches; Ararat-Armenia are 36th (in the drop zone) with 0. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Jagiellonia, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Gornik Zabrze, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.

Ararat-Armenia, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Alashkert, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Ararat-Armenia, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.5 for Jagiellonia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Jagiellonia 2.2 xG, Ararat-Armenia 0.7 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Jagiellonia 70%, draw 20%, Ararat-Armenia 10%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.85.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Jagiellonia to win (70%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Jagiellonia 2–0 Ararat-Armenia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Jagiellonia70%fair 1.44 · @1.40

Draw20%fair 4.97 · @4.60

Ararat-Armenia10%fair 9.63 · @7.00

2.88Expected goals

2.16Jagiellonia xG

0.72Ararat-Armenia xG

51%Both score

55%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–013%

1–012%

2–19%

3–09%

1–19%

3–17%

From our goals model: Jagiellonia 2.2 – 0.7 Ararat-Armenia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Jagiellonia to win ✓	70%	1.44	1.40
Double chance	Jagiellonia or draw ✓	90%	1.12	1.10
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	51%	1.95	1.85
Draw no bet	Jagiellonia (draw no bet) ✓	87%	1.15	–
Asian handicap	Jagiellonia -1 (Asian handicap) ✓	61%	1.65	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	78%	1.28	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	55%	1.82	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	67%	1.48	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	84%	1.20	–
First team to score	Jagiellonia to score first	71%	1.42	–
Half-time result	Jagiellonia ahead at half-time ✓	50%	1.98	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Jagiellonia / FT Jagiellonia ✓	46%	2.16	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	10.59	–

Jagiellonia – last 6

LLLLLW

10 Oct	vs Gornik Zabrze	1–3	L
3 Oct	vs Polonia Warszawa	1–2	L
20 Sep	vs Legia Warszawa	1–3	L
16 Sep	@ Olympiakos Piraeus	1–2	L
11 Sep	@ Wisla Krakow	0–2	L
6 Sep	vs Slask Wroclaw	2–1	W

1.0Scored / game

2.2Conceded / game

83%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Ararat-Armenia – last 6

DWLWWL

10 Oct	vs Alashkert	1–1	D
20 Sep	@ Shirak	3–1	W
16 Sep	vs Sparta Praha	1–4	L
11 Sep	vs Syunik	3–0	W
5 Sep	@ Ararat	1–0	W
31 Aug	@ Pyunik Yerevan	1–2	L

1.7Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Bournemouth	4	4	0	0	+9	12
3	Ferencvarosi TC	4	4	0	0	+8	12
4	Union St. Gilloise	4	3	1	0	+8	10
5	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+7	10
6	Olympiakos Piraeus	4	3	1	0	+3	10
7	Bayer Leverkusen	4	3	0	1	+7	9
8	Beşiktaş	4	2	1	1	+3	7
9	Dinamo Zagreb	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Levski Sofia	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	Sunderland	4	2	1	1	0	7
12	NEC Nijmegen	4	2	1	1	-1	7
13	Lyon	4	2	1	1	-1	7
14	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	0	2	+3	6
15	Anderlecht	4	2	0	2	+3	6
16	OFI	4	2	0	2	+1	6
17	Rennes	4	1	3	0	+1	6
18	Omonia Nicosia	4	2	0	2	-1	6
19	Torreense	4	2	0	2	-2	6
20	Real Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+5	5
21	Crystal Palace	4	1	2	1	+3	5
22	Sparta Praha	4	1	1	2	0	4
23	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	0	4
24	Sturm Graz	4	1	1	2	-3	4
25	Celje	4	1	1	2	-4	4
26	Red Bull Salzburg	4	1	1	2	-5	4
27	Celta Vigo	4	1	0	3	-2	3
28	AC Milan	4	1	0	3	-3	3
29	Jagiellonia	4	1	0	3	-3	3
30	Plzen	4	1	0	3	-4	3
31	Marseille	4	1	0	3	-4	3
32	Celtic	4	1	0	3	-5	3
33	Hapoel Beer Sheva	4	0	1	3	-7	1
34	Lillestrom	4	0	1	3	-8	1
35	Lech Poznan	4	0	1	3	-10	1
36	Ararat-Armenia	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Team

Pts

+10

-1

-1

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-2

-3

-3

-4

-4

-5

-7

-8

-10

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?

Our pick is Jagiellonia to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.

Who will win Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?

On our numbers Jagiellonia have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Ararat-Armenia 10%.

How many goals will there be in Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?

We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?

Our predicted score is Jagiellonia 2–0 Ararat-Armenia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.

When is Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Jagiellonia v Ararat-Armenia: numbers & prediction