NEC Nijmegen 62%Draw 22%Levski Sofia 16%Expected goals 2.05 – 0.95
84%
Betarazi pick
NEC Nijmegen or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: NEC Nijmegen to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNEC Nijmegen to win ✗62% · @1.85
Double chanceNEC Nijmegen or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.06
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 15 October the UEFA Europa League brings NEC Nijmegen against Levski Sofia at Stadion de Goffert. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, NEC Nijmegen are 12th, upper half, on 7 points after 4 matches; Levski Sofia are 10th (upper half) with 7. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
NEC Nijmegen, last 5: DDLLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Ajax, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Levski Sofia, last 5: WLDLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Cherno More Varna, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Levski Sofia, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.5 for NEC Nijmegen.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give NEC Nijmegen 2.1 xG, Levski Sofia 0.9 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 59% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – NEC Nijmegen 62%, draw 22%, Levski Sofia 16%.
Lower-risk option: NEC Nijmegen or draw (84%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: NEC Nijmegen to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was NEC Nijmegen or draw (84%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: NEC Nijmegen 2–0 Levski Sofia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
NEC Nijmegen62%fair 1.61 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.60
Levski Sofia16%fair 6.29 · @3.80
3.00Expected goals
2.05NEC Nijmegen xG
0.95Levski Sofia xG
59%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: NEC Nijmegen 2.1 – 0.9 Levski Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
NEC Nijmegen to win✗
62%
1.61
1.85 ▲
Double chance
NEC Nijmegen or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.67
Draw no bet
NEC Nijmegen (draw no bet)
80%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
NEC Nijmegen -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
NEC Nijmegen to score first✗
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
NEC Nijmegen ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT NEC Nijmegen / FT NEC Nijmegen✗
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.06
–
Recent results
NEC Nijmegen – last 6
DDLLDL
10 Oct
@ Ajax
1–1
D
20 Sep
vs GO Ahead Eagles
1–1
D
17 Sep
@ Juventus
0–5
L
12 Sep
@ Cambuur
0–3
L
8 Sep
vs Excelsior
2–2
D
5 Sep
vs Feyenoord
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Levski Sofia – last 6
WLDLWW
11 Oct
@ Cherno More Varna
2–0
W
17 Sep
vs Red Bull Salzburg
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Botev Vratsa
0–0
D
9 Sep
vs CSKA Sofia
2–4
L
5 Sep
vs CSKA 1948
1–0
W
2 Sep
@ Slavia Sofia
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia.
What is the prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
Our pick is NEC Nijmegen or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
On our numbers NEC Nijmegen have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Levski Sofia 16%.
How many goals will there be in NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
Our predicted score is NEC Nijmegen 2–0 Levski Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion de Goffert.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
