Patronato 43%Draw 31%Nueva Chicago 25%Expected goals 1.05 – 0.62
73%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.33
8/10Rating
1.33Odds
Picks by market
ResultPatronato to win43% · @2.05
Double chancePatronato or draw75% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score54% · @1.45
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–020% · fair 5.06
Patronato vs Nueva Chicago: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Nueva Chicago travel to face Patronato on Sunday 3 May in the Primera Nacional – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Patronato are 16th, in the drop zone, on 38 points after 36 matches; Nueva Chicago are 17th (in the drop zone) with 37. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Patronato, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Deportivo Maipu, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Nueva Chicago, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Midland, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Nueva Chicago, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.5 for Patronato.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Patronato 1.0 xG, Nueva Chicago 0.6 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 73%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Patronato 43%, draw 31%, Nueva Chicago 25%.
Lower-risk option: Patronato or draw (75%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.45.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Patronato 1–0 Nueva Chicago. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Patronato43%fair 2.30 · @2.05
Draw31%fair 3.22 · @2.75
Nueva Chicago25%fair 3.93 · @4.00
1.67Expected goals
1.05Patronato xG
0.62Nueva Chicago xG
46%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–020%
0–019%
1–112%
0–112%
2–010%
2–16%
From our goals model: Patronato 1.0 – 0.6 Nueva Chicago expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Patronato
Nueva Chicago
Attack vs Primera Nacional average
-15%
-32%
Goals conceded vs average
+0%
+7%
Our expected goals here
1.11
0.54
Our own ratings from every Primera Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Patronato to win
43%
2.30
2.05
Double chance
Patronato or draw
75%
1.34
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
54%
1.86
1.45
Draw no bet
Patronato (draw no bet)
63%
1.58
–
Asian handicap
Nueva Chicago +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
53%
1.90
1.67
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
73%
1.36
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
97%
1.03
–
First team to score
Patronato to score first
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
54%
1.84
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw
26%
3.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
20%
5.06
–
Recent results
Patronato – last 6
DLLDLD
19 Apr
vs Deportivo Maipu
0–0
D
29 Mar
vs Colon Santa Fe
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Quilmes
0–3
L
3 Mar
@ Atlanta
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ San Martin Tucuman
0–0
D
0.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Nueva Chicago – last 6
DWDWWW
13 Apr
vs Midland
2–2
D
8 Apr
@ Atlanta
2–1
W
29 Mar
vs All Boys
0–0
D
23 Mar
vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
3–1
W
1 Mar
@ Agropecuario
2–0
W
15 Feb
@ Club Atlético Güemes
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Patronato and Nueva Chicago.
What is the prediction for Patronato vs Nueva Chicago?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Patronato vs Nueva Chicago?
On our numbers Patronato have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Nueva Chicago 25%.
How many goals will there be in Patronato vs Nueva Chicago?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Patronato vs Nueva Chicago?
Our predicted score is Patronato 1–0 Nueva Chicago, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Patronato vs Nueva Chicago?
Patronato vs Nueva Chicago (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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