Double chanceSan Martin Tucuman or draw ✓84% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.55
San Martin Tucuman vs Atletico DE Rafaela: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Sunday 3 May: San Martin Tucuman v Atletico DE Rafaela in the Primera Nacional, played at Estadio La Ciudadela. In the table, San Martin Tucuman are 10th, lower half, on 47 points after 36 matches; Atletico DE Rafaela are 11th (lower half) with 47. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
San Martin Tucuman, last 4: DDDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Tristan Suarez, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Atletico DE Rafaela, last 5: WDLDL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Agropecuario, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give San Martin Tucuman 1.4 xG, Atletico DE Rafaela 0.7 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – San Martin Tucuman 56%, draw 28%, Atletico DE Rafaela 16%.
Lower-risk option: San Martin Tucuman or draw (84%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was San Martin Tucuman to win (56%, odds 1.85 – longer than our fair 1.80, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: San Martin Tucuman 1–0 Atletico DE Rafaela. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
San Martin Tucuman56%fair 1.80 · @1.85
Draw28%fair 3.53 · @2.90
Atletico DE Rafaela16%fair 6.21 · @4.80
2.05Expected goals
1.40San Martin Tucuman xG
0.65Atletico DE Rafaela xG
47%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
0–013%
2–013%
1–112%
0–18%
2–18%
From our goals model: San Martin Tucuman 1.4 – 0.7 Atletico DE Rafaela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
San Martin Tucuman
Atletico DE Rafaela
Attack vs Primera Nacional average
+14%
-11%
Goals conceded vs average
+11%
+13%
Our expected goals here
1.58
0.77
Our own ratings from every Primera Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Martin Tucuman to win✓
56%
1.80
1.85
Double chance
San Martin Tucuman or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.50
Draw no bet
San Martin Tucuman (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Atletico DE Rafaela +1 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
San Martin Tucuman to score first
60%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Martin Tucuman / FT San Martin Tucuman✗
33%
3.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.55
–
Recent results
San Martin Tucuman – last 4
DDDD
19 Apr
vs Tristan Suarez
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ Deportivo Madryn
1–1
D
21 Mar
@ San Martin S.J.
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Patronato
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Atletico DE Rafaela – last 6
WDLDLW
21 Apr
vs Agropecuario
4–1
W
14 Apr
@ Tristan Suarez
0–0
D
6 Apr
vs Club Atlético Güemes
1–2
L
30 Mar
@ Defensores De Belgrano
1–1
D
28 Mar
@ Belgrano Cordoba
0–3
L
14 Mar
vs San Martin S.J.
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Martin Tucuman and Atletico DE Rafaela.
What is the prediction for San Martin Tucuman vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Our pick is San Martin Tucuman to win with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win San Martin Tucuman vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
On our numbers San Martin Tucuman have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Atletico DE Rafaela 16%.
How many goals will there be in San Martin Tucuman vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Martin Tucuman vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Our predicted score is San Martin Tucuman 1–0 Atletico DE Rafaela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is San Martin Tucuman vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
San Martin Tucuman vs Atletico DE Rafaela (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Ciudadela.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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