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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

San Marino v Finland: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · San Marino Stadium

San Marino

LLD
0–7
FT

Finland

LLW
San Marino 14%Draw 13%Finland 73% Expected goals 0.87 – 2.36
62%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓

5/10Rating
1.50Odds

Picks by market

ResultFinland to win ✓73% · @1.07
Double chanceEither team to win ✓87% · @1.03
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.25
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–3 ✗9% · fair 11.51

San Marino vs Finland: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

17:00 WAT, Saturday 26 September: San Marino v Finland in the UEFA Nations League, played at San Marino Stadium. In the table, San Marino are 4th on 0 points after 4 matches; Finland are 3rd with 7.

Current form

San Marino, last 3: LLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Azerbaijan, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Finland, last 3: LLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Hungary, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Finland, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.3 for San Marino.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give San Marino 0.9 xG, Finland 2.4 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 62% for three or more goals, 48% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – San Marino 14%, draw 13%, Finland 73%.
  • GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.25.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (62%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: San Marino 1–2 Finland. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

San Marino14%fair 7.01 · @26.00
Draw13%fair 7.70 · @10.00
Finland73%fair 1.37 · @1.07
3.22Expected goals
0.87San Marino xG
2.36Finland xG
48%Both score
62%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–211%
1–210%
0–19%
0–39%
1–18%
1–38%

From our goals model: San Marino 0.9 – 2.4 Finland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultFinland to win ✓73%1.371.07
Double chanceEither team to win ✓87%1.151.03
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓52%1.921.25
Draw no betFinland (draw no bet) ✓84%1.20–
Asian handicapFinland -1 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.62–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82%1.211.14
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓62%1.601.50
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗59%1.701.62
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗76%1.311.25
First team to scoreFinland to score first ✓70%1.42–
Half-time resultFinland ahead at half-time ✓52%1.93–
Half-time / full-timeHT Finland / FT Finland ✓47%2.12–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–3 ✗9%11.51–

Recent results

San Marino – last 3

LLD
9 Jun@ Azerbaijan1–2L
5 Junvs Bangladesh1–2L
31 Marvs Andorra0–0D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Finland – last 3

LLW
5 Jun@ Hungary1–2L
31 May@ Germany0–4L
27 Mar@ New Zealand2–0W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between San Marino and Finland.

San Marino vs Finland head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Albania4301+59
2Belarus4211+37
3Finland4211+77
4San Marino4004-150

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
FT Slovenia0 Scotland0 134%2.45X23%3.10242%2.90 1.1–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 78%@1.22 ✓
FT Faroe Islands1 Kazakhstan1 128%2.25X53%3.10219%3.40 1.2–1.0xG 1XFaroe Islands or draw 81%@1.30 ✓
FT Iceland1 Estonia1 168%1.25X16%5.75216%11.00 2.2–0.9xG 1Iceland to win 68%@1.25 ✗
FT Bulgaria1 Luxembourg2 148%2.30X25%3.00228%3.40 1.3–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 80%@1.20 ✓
FT England2 Spain3 132%3.10X22%3.40247%2.20 1.3–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓
FT Czechia1 Croatia2 129%3.25X21%3.50249%2.15 1.2–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓
FT Albania2 Belarus0 163%1.50X24%4.00213%7.00 1.7–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓
FT Slovakia2 Moldova0 171%1.17X20%7.0029%15.00 2.3–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 62%@1.53 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for San Marino vs Finland?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.

Who will win San Marino vs Finland?

On our numbers San Marino have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Finland 73%.

How many goals will there be in San Marino vs Finland?

We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for San Marino vs Finland?

Our predicted score is San Marino 1–2 Finland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.

When is San Marino vs Finland?

San Marino vs Finland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at San Marino Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.