Wednesday 11 November 2026 15 live now 66% correct · last 30 days JackpotsNewsTelegram18+
BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Bulgaria v Luxembourg: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo)

Bulgaria

DLWW
1–2
FT

Luxembourg

WLWW
Bulgaria 48%Draw 25%Luxembourg 28% Expected goals 1.33 – 0.93
80%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1

Value bet: Bulgaria to win @ 2.30 – our chance 48% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultBulgaria to win ✗48% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.68

Bulgaria vs Luxembourg: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Luxembourg travel to face Bulgaria on Saturday 26 September in the UEFA Nations League, with Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo) the venue – the ball rolls at 17:00 WAT. In the table, Bulgaria are 3rd on 4 points after 4 matches; Luxembourg are 4th with 3. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Bulgaria, last 4: DLWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Moldova, away. Scoring is no problem – 3.3 a game lately.

Luxembourg, last 4: WLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Albania, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Luxembourg, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.8 for Bulgaria.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Bulgaria 1.3 xG, Luxembourg 0.9 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 53%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Bulgaria 48%, draw 25%, Luxembourg 28%.
  • GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.00.
  • Price worth noting: Bulgaria to win @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 48%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bulgaria 1–0 Luxembourg. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Bulgaria48%fair 2.10 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Luxembourg28%fair 3.59 · @3.40
2.25Expected goals
1.33Bulgaria xG
0.93Luxembourg xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–19%

From our goals model: Bulgaria 1.3 – 0.9 Luxembourg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBulgaria to win ✗48%2.102.30 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75%1.331.36
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓53%1.892.00 ▲
Draw no betBulgaria (draw no bet) ✗63%1.59–
Asian handicapLuxembourg +1 (Asian handicap) ✓72%1.40–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓65%1.531.44
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗61%1.641.53
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80%1.261.20
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓90%1.111.06
First team to scoreBulgaria to score first53%1.90–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓46%2.15–
Half-time / full-timeHT Bulgaria / FT Bulgaria ✗27%3.74–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.68–

Recent results

Bulgaria – last 4

DLWW
5 Jun@ Moldova2–2D
1 Junvs Montenegro0–1L
30 Mar@ Indonesia1–0W
27 Mar@ Solomon Islands10–2W
3.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Luxembourg – last 4

WLWW
6 Jun@ Albania1–0W
3 Junvs Italy0–1L
31 Marvs Malta3–0W
26 Mar@ Malta2–0W
1.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
25%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Bulgaria and Luxembourg.

Bulgaria vs Luxembourg head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Iceland4220+68
2Estonia4130+16
3Bulgaria4112-24
4Luxembourg4103-53

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
FT Slovenia0 Scotland0 134%2.45X23%3.10242%2.90 1.1–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 78%@1.22 ✓
FT San Marino0 Finland7 114%26.00X13%10.00273%1.07 0.9–2.4xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 62%@1.50 ✓
FT Faroe Islands1 Kazakhstan1 128%2.25X53%3.10219%3.40 1.2–1.0xG 1XFaroe Islands or draw 81%@1.30 ✓
FT Iceland1 Estonia1 168%1.25X16%5.75216%11.00 2.2–0.9xG 1Iceland to win 68%@1.25 ✗
FT England2 Spain3 132%3.10X22%3.40247%2.20 1.3–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓
FT Czechia1 Croatia2 129%3.25X21%3.50249%2.15 1.2–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓
FT Albania2 Belarus0 163%1.50X24%4.00213%7.00 1.7–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓
FT Slovakia2 Moldova0 171%1.17X20%7.0029%15.00 2.3–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 62%@1.53 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?

On our numbers Bulgaria have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Luxembourg 28%.

How many goals will there be in Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?

Our predicted score is Bulgaria 1–0 Luxembourg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?

Bulgaria vs Luxembourg (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.